Kinston, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

439
FXUS62 KMHX 250119
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
919 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern NC from the
northeast through today before a low pressure system moves in
from the west late week. As we get into next week we will be
monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest 94L.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Low stratus and patchy mist/fog possible tonight
Continued weak moisture advection beneath a capping inversion
appears supportive of areas of low clouds and patchy fog tonight.
Because the boundary layer will likely be more mixed thanks to
a modest pressure gradient, low stratus is the most likely
scenario. however, if we are able to be calm for a couple hours,
it would provide an opportunity for patchy fog to develop as the
stratus builds down. I left a mention of patchy fog in the
forecast, but the expectation is for a lower risk of dense fog
tonight compared to the past few nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Scattered strong thunderstorms possible late afternoon into
   the evening hours
- Above normal temperatures expected Thursday, with heat
   indices of 95 to 100 degrees
Continued southerly flow and increasing low-level thicknesses
should support highs topping out a bit warmer than today, with
heat indices of around 90 for area beaches, and indices of
95-100 inland. This is above to well above normal for late
September.
During the day, heating of a moist boundary layer should allow
MLCAPE of 1000-1500j/kg to develop out ahead of a surface trough
that will be moving east out of central NC. This trough looks
to reach ENC after peak heating, and as the boundary layer
begins to stabilize some, which makes the convective potential
less certain. It appears likely that broken bands of
thunderstorms will develop across central NC along the trough
during the afternoon hours, some of which may reach the coastal
plain of ENC near sunset. Low-level lapse rates will be
weakening, which should begin to lower the risk of
gusty/damaging winds as they reach our area. However, if
thunderstorms progress east faster than forecast, there may be
an opportunity for a few strong wind gusts capable of tree
damage from Duplin County north through Martin County. PWATs
increasing to near 2" should support increased rain rates, with
minor flooding possible. It has been very dry of late, though,
and this should keep the overall flood/flash flood risk low.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern will remain over ENC through this weekend
- Monitoring the Southwestern Atlantic for potential tropical
  development late this weekend into early next week
There remains average to above average confidence in the large
scale upper level pattern through Sat/Sun with lower confidence
later in the period towards early next week. As a result, have
leaned on more of the ensemble and AI guidance later in the
forecast period in order to focus on the overall pattern, and
hash out specifics as we get closer to next week.
Friday...A positively tilted upper trough stretching SW`wards
from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains becomes more
neutrally tilted Fri into Fri night. This upper trough will
split into two pieces of energy Fri with a northern shortwave
tracking east into the Canadian Maritimes by Fri night while
southern shortwave cuts off from the flow in the Tennessee River
Valley/Southeast.
At the surface, a cold front will slowly track E`wards through
Fri eventually nearing the coast Fri afternoon and stalling.
Higher risk for showers and storms on Fri as the front and
better forcing enters into ENC. There will be yet another
threat for an isolated stronger storm or two on Friday, though
with ample cloud cover expected over the area, severe threat
would likely be minimal at best. Could also see a heavy rain
threat given the stalling boundary and likely training rain
activity with WPC denoting the area in a marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for excessive rainfall. Temps in the mid 80s along the
coastal and OBX each day with upper 80s to low 90s expected
inland.
Saturday through early next week... Unsettled weather remains in
place through the weekend and into early next week as the
aforementioned stalled front remains overhead. This will once
again bring at least a low end threat (20% or less) of heavy
rainfall across ENC especially on Sat. As we get into early
next week the forecast gets a bit complicated as model guidance
varies on the evolution of the upper and lower level patterns.
Main things to note is it appears that most guidance, ensemble
and AI does stall out the aforementioned upper cutoff low this
weekend before the upper low pushes north and east early next
week, but differences in exact track and speed of this upper low
result in differences in the forecast. At the same time, we
continue to monitor Invest 93L and 94L in the southwestern
Atlantic. Trends show increasing chances for development for
93L and 94L just north and east of the Bahamas with both systems
eventually tracking northwards early next week. While this
occurs high pressure builds in from the north potentially drying
things out but also breaking down the steering currents across
the western Atlantic. Ensemble and AI guidance still remain
fairly spread overall on the eventual track of both 93L and
94L, but the general consensus is that both systems track
northwest then north potentially interacting with each other as
they remain in close proximity and then eventually move off to
the north and east. At this time direct impacts to ENC are
unknown but we will continue to monitor trends and give updates
as needed. Temps from the weekend and beyond will remain about
avg to below avg.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/...
As of 900 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- IFR/LIFR conditions possible tonight (60-80% chance)
The pattern tonight appears supportive of the development of
low CIGs (IFR/LIFR), especially after 03z/11pm. Tonight looks
like more of a stratus scenario vs a FG scenario, and the TAFs
reflect this expectation. Some reductions to VIS appear
possible, but should mostly be in the IFR/MVFR range, if at all.
CIGs should rise through MVFR by 14z Thursday, then eventually
transition to VFR afterwards. The seabreeze on Thursday looks to
be a bit more active than today, but the greatest chance of
TSRA looks to be focused after the current TAF cycle.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Expecting VFR conditions through much of
Thursday. Though as we get into Thursday night isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms out ahead of an approaching
cold front could bring brief periods of sub VFR conditions to
the area. Increasing chances at sub VFR conditions are expected
from Friday and through the rest of the weekend as the cold
front eventually stalls over the area and brings continued
chances at showers and thunderstorms to ENC.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Long period swell from Gabrielle continues to weaken
 - Building southerly winds Thursday
Southerly winds of 5-15kt will continue through Thursday
morning, with seas of 2-4 ft at 9-10s. During the day Thursday,
winds will gradually build to 10-20kt as the gradient begins to
tighten ahead of a surface trough approaching from the west. The
risk of 25kt winds appears low right now, but some of the
typical areas with enhanced wind along the summertime thermal
gradient may come close (ie. the Pamlico, Croatan, Roanoke
Sounds). Seas should hold steady around 2-3 ft, but may begin to
approach 4 ft by Thursday evening. The risk of thunderstorms
appears low through Thursday, but may increase some Thursday
night, especially around the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Cold front eventually stalls over the area
on Fri bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
starting Fri though the weekend. In addition to this S`rly flow
will weakening Fri down to 5-10 kts with these winds persisting
into Sat before shifting to a northeasterly direction on Sun as
the front eventually pushes offshore. Seas remain around 2-3 ft
through the rest of the period.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/RJ
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RM/RCF

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion