Kinta, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

615
FXUS64 KTSA 050549
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- A strong cold front moves into the region today with a large
   temperature gradient across the front. Scattered showers and
   storms will develop across the area during the morning hours,
   becoming confined to the south and east into Saturday.
- Clearing and drying conditions from the north to south Saturday,
   with temperatures well below normal through early next week.
- The pattern appears to become dry and warmer by the middle of
   next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A strong cold front will push into northeast OK near daybreak. It
will arrive at a line from Fort Smith to McAlester by early
afternoon before slowing down across southeast OK and weakening. Mid
level moisture and instability will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms across northeast OK near dawn this morning, with storm
coverage expanding to the rest of the forecast area by mid morning
(generally 20-40% PoPs). Cool and dry air will begin pouring in from
the north behind the front, with gusts of 20-35 mph expected and
strongest in northeast Oklahoma. Dew points will fall into the lower
50s. By the afternoon, showers and storms will begin to focus across
southeast OK and northwest AR, though at least isolated activity
will continue for most areas. Severe weather is not expected, but
the dry lower levels may support some fairly gusty winds near
stronger storms to 40 mph or so. High temperatures will vary quite a
bit. In northeast OK high temperatures will only reach the lower
70s, with low 90s possible towards the Red River. All areas will
cool quickly during the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Conditions will continue to dry out and clear Saturday. Temperatures
will be chilly with lows Saturday morning in the 50s to low 60s.
Highs will only reach the 70s. Conditions will slowly moderate into
next week with 70s and low 80s into Tuesday across the area. There
is a modest signal in the ensemble data for a weak shortwave to
bring a few showers to the area Tuesday or Wednesday, but right now
the more likely outcome is dry weather with just an increase in
clouds. If showers did materialize, the probability of rain would be
higher across eastern OK than AR. Accordingly, included some 15-20%
PoPs on Tuesday for eastern OK.
Strong upper level ridging will then build for the middle of next
week, with temperatures climbing closer to normal (upper 80s) with
some humidity also returning to the area. Rain chances will
generally be pretty low during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Other than some light fog early this morning at KBVO and KFYV,
mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
cold front will move south across the area today, with breezy
north winds gusting to around 20 knots at some places in its wake.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning,
mainly at the northeast Oklahoma sites, with additional shower and
storm development possible later this evening potentially
impacting the southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  77  57 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   89  62  81  61 /  20  40  20   0
MLC   85  58  77  60 /  20  40  20  10
BVO   70  51  77  53 /  30  30   0   0
FYV   80  55  77  53 /  20  50  10   0
BYV   78  54  77  52 /  20  60  10   0
MKO   81  57  78  58 /  20  30  10   0
MIO   72  52  77  53 /  30  40   0   0
F10   78  55  76  58 /  20  30  10   0
HHW   91  62  77  64 /  20  60  30  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion