Kiowa, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS64 KTSA 042335
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- Strong cold front moves into the region on Friday with a large
   temperature gradient across the front. Showers and storms
   expand north of front with evening storms along the front with
   a period of stronger storm potential.
- Clearing and drying conditions from north to south Saturday
   with temps well below normal through early next week.
- Pattern appears to become dry and warmer by mid next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Weak cold front currently from SE OK into NW AR will gradually
lose definition through the afternoon and focus will be on the
much stronger cold front moving into NE OK late tonight. Expect
the wind shift near the Interstate 44 corridor by sunrise and
light showers beginning to spread into the region from west.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Strong cold advection and gusty winds will follow the cold front
on Friday as it moves into SE OK and NW AR by Friday evening.
Expanding region of showers and isolated storms north of the sfc
boundary with associated cloud cover keeping minimal temp recovery
through the day. Storms are likely to develop along the sfc front
by late afternoon or early evening and spread across SE OK into
western AR through the evening with a few strong to briefly severe
storms possible. Locally heavy rains possible through Friday
night.
Drying trend spreads north to south on Saturday with temps well
below normal persisting through Sunday. Guidance has trended
toward a drier pattern for much of next week along with strong
ridging aloft through the central CONUS. Expect temps to trend
nearer seasonal normals for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and most of the
overnight periods. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage across NE OK during the early
morning hours, possibly impacting NE OK terminals through most of
the morning with showers and the occasional rumble of thunder. The
better rain chances should shift north by the afternoon, so have
left out of mention for now, but showers could linger in the area
through much of the day behind the passage of a cold front.
Lighter showers or mist could also affect NW AR sites during the
morning... have opted to mention the chance for some mist and
somewhat reduced vsby to cover this threat. Cigs should mostly
remain VFR, but some signal for a few MVFR cigs are there,
especially within any heavier showers or storms. With the frontal
passage will also come breezy northerly winds with gusts in the
20-25 knot range during the daylight hours tomorrow across NE OK
and NW AR.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  75  56  76 /  20  20  20  10
FSM   71  90  63  80 /  10  10  30  20
MLC   69  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   62  71  50  76 /  20  30  20   0
FYV   65  82  55  77 /  10  20  30  10
BYV   64  79  54  76 /  10  20  40  10
MKO   68  82  58  78 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   64  73  52  78 /  20  30  30   0
F10   67  79  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  90  62  76 /   0  10  40  30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion