Kirschnerville, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

762
FXUS61 KBUF 271746
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building east and then south across the Great Lakes
will lead to an extended period of dry weather through the weekend
and all of next week. Warm daytime temperatures through Tuesday will
cool to more seasonable levels by Wednesday, then trend back above
normal later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad ridge will remain across the region through the period as a
trough drifts towards the Southeast coast. Mid and high level clouds
across the region through this evening will gradually shift off
to the east tonight. This will allow for more favorable conditions
for Southern Tier valley fog formation late tonight and Sunday
morning.
Fair weather Sunday with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather Sunday night through Monday night with surface high
pressure slowly advancing across the region. Dentritic valley fog is
likely for the Southern Tier, as well as patches of fog southeast
and east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening cold front will drop southward across our region through
the day Tuesday with a strong area of Canadian surface high pressure
to follow...a feature that will maintain dry weather through this
forecast period.
The core of the colder airmass (850 hPa temperatures low single
digits Celsius) will be Wednesday night which with deep dry airmass
aloft and lighter winds may allow for frost formation east of Lake
Ontario, and possibly within some of the colder valleys of the
inland Southern Tier. Additional frost is also possible Thursday
night east of Lake Ontario and within the inland Southern Tier
valleys.
Cold air advection Wednesday along with a brisk northerly wind
gusting to 30 mph will send temperatures briefly back to normal
Wednesday and again Thursday (though with a lighter wind), with
above normal warmth returning for next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail areawide into this evening with lingering mid and
high level clouds. A round of valley fog is expected in the Southern
Tier tonight, though radiation fog outside this area should be
limited with slightly more gradient wind in place.
Outlook...
Sunday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions with variable flow and winds 10 knots or
less are expected on lower Great Lakes as high pressure maintains
its influence through Monday. Northeast winds will slowly begin
to increase throughout the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure
builds south into the region and a tropical system churns off
the East Coast creating some chop, especially on Lake Ontario.
A stronger push of cooler air into the region will cause northeast
winds to sharply increase Tuesday night into Wednesday night with
speeds of 15 to 25 knots, with a period of SCA conditions expected,
especially on Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...PP/TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion