631 FXUS61 KCTP 030531 AFDCTPArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 131 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS... * Temperatures will climb to well above normal Friday into early next week. * Our extended dry pattern continues with no rainfall and low humidity expected through Monday night. * Cooler for later next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A large high pressure will remain in control into Friday. The airmass is quite dry, so the potential for fog is low tonight. A few high clouds extended southward from Canada into central PA. Light winds and nearly clear skies will make for radiational cooling. There could be a few spots with temperatures falling into the upper 30s.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Main features to the forecast are dry aftn dewpoints/low humidity, but just a little higher Fri vs Thu, and temps trending above normal. Even though the dewpoints rise, expect lows Friday night to quickly fall off after sunset.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large upper level high will prevail, as was the case back in September.
Earlier discussion below.
Thus mostly sunny and very warm days followed by comfortable sleeping nights over the weekend into early next week. Highs will climb well above the historical average for early October (+10-15F) reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry air in place will keep min temps closer to/but still above climo. No rainfall is expected Saturday through Monday.
Model and ensemble mean consensus finally bring some rainfall back into the picture by the middle of next week, with a cold frontal passage projected around next Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM/WPC blended QPF amounts within that 24 to 48 hr period are in the 0.10 to 0.75" range from SE to NW - so certainly not a drought buster we will take what we can get.
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.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 130 AM update.
Same forecaster here as earlier. Main change was to edge winds up a bit today. Overall no big changes from the 00Z TAF package.
Earlier discussion below.
Other than a few high clouds extending southward from southern Canada, expect clear skies overnight.
Dewpoints remain low, so not much chance of fog tonight or Friday night.
The dry high pressure will linger over the eastern half of the CONUS through the weekend, providing excellent flying conditions.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...VFR other than AM fog possible mainly - N valleys.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Martin NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin AVIATION...Martin
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion