Kulptown Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS61 KPHI 150524
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
124 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the coast continues to move away into the North
Atlantic. A cold front will move through the area today with
strong high pressure building in to close out the week. A low
pressure system may approach from the west late this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through early this morning, we remain partly cloudy across the
area with the clouds decreasing from west to east. Dry weather
is anticipated to continue. Winds are around 10-20 mph.
For today, our stubborn low clouds really lessen through daybreak.
The remainder of the morning, we see some lingering mid and high
clouds that continue to decrease into the afternoon from west to
east. By the afternoon, we see more sunshine with a mostly
clear sky. There will be a cold front approaching from the
northwest that sinks southeast through our area today. This
cold front lacks a lot of moisture, so no precip is expected and
it does not add much in the way of additional cloud cover.
Winds will once again become increasingly gusty after the front
passes and we get some noticeable cold air advection where
northwest winds may gust up to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Even
with the cold front moving through, our afternoon highs are
expected to be mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Behind the cold front, we see a high pressure system building in
from the Great Lakes region which continues to allow cold air
advection to persist into Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s for most. Even with some spots falling into
the mid to upper 30s tonight, there is not a lot of concern for
frost. The colder spots for tonight have already ended their growing
season like the Poconos for example. Wind gusts still near 20-25 mph
tonight will also limit any potential for frost. We stay mostly
clear overnight with the high pressure system building in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold advection will persist thru Wednesday night as high
pressure builds in from Canada, resulting in a steady
northwesterly wind. Skies should be mostly clear, and lows will
drop down into the upper 30s and low 40s.
With the high taking its time building into the area, we`ll
keep a northwesterly gradient, so the northwest winds will
remain steady and occasionally gusty on Thursday. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will only recover
to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
It still appears the gradient will remain tight enough Thursday
night, with the high center still off to the northwest, such
that we`ll mostly avoid a frost/freeze threat in locations where
the growing season continues. The steady breeze will remain,
though a bit weaker than Wednesday night. Lows Thursday night in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure finally builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to
relax more as the cold advection finally dwindles. Another
mostly sunny day should help to bring temps up a little, with
highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s in the Poconos.
The highs sinks to our south on Friday night, with warm
advection beginning aloft as the gradient turns westerly, though
remaining light. Some clouds may filter into the area as well.
Lows Friday night in the 40s.
A weak warm frontal passage on Saturday should bring a bit more
cloud cover, but also notably warmer temperatures. Highs
Saturday in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Warm advection on a southwesterly gradient will continue
Saturday night, but remaining dry with high pressure still in
control as it drifts off the Carolina coast. Lows Saturday night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Warm advection peaks on Sunday just ahead of the next frontal
system approaching from the west. Clouds will be increasing,
along with the risk of showers, but it still should be the
warmest day of the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to
mid 70s, except 60s in the Poconos.
Aforementioned front moves through Sunday night, with
widespread showers and maybe even some thunderstorms and locally
heavy rain, depending on how the details set up. Lows Sunday
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
High pressure starts building back in Monday, with decreasing
clouds and precip chances. Highs Monday in the 60s, except 50s
in the Poconos.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12Z...Lingering MVFR CIGs through 07Z or so, for some
of the I-95 terminals. KMIV and KACY look to hold onto MVFR CIGs
into 09Z or so. KABE/KRDG/KPNE/KILG have already gone VFR with
the other terminals joining through the rest of the night from
west to east. N-NW winds around 10 kts or less. Moderate-high
confidence.
Wednesday...VFR with SCT high clouds decreasing through the day.
N-NW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
with 20 gusts in the afternoon. High confidence.
Wednesday Night...VFR with SKC. A mainly NNW wind around 10 kts
with occasional gusts to 20 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday thru Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail.
Sunday...Restrictions likely developing late as low clouds and
rain move in ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic coastal waters are
in effect into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
on the Delaware Bay at 4 PM today and continues into tonight.
For today, a north-northwest wind around 10-15 kt in the
morning will increase to 15- 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts
up to 25 kt following a frontal passage. Seas of 6-8 feet.
Overnight, northerly winds around 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt. Seas remain at 6-8 feet. Fair weather outside of SCA
conditions.
Outlook...
Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely at times Thursday
thru Thursday night due to winds and/or waves, at least on the
ocean waters. Delaware Bay will naturally have more sub-
advisory periods.
Sub-SCA conditions should become more widespread Friday and
continue thru Saturday.
Sunday will see increasing southerly winds and seas building
over 5 feet. Advisory conditions likely. Rain developing late
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisory was allowed to expire for Atlantic
and Cape May County in NJ and Kent County in DE as no further
tidal flooding is expected.
Barnegat Bay and the back bays of the Delaware Beaches have been
slow to drain and remain mostly in minor flood stage. Flow
slowly turns more to the north/northwest tonight and tomorrow.
Would expect continued tidal flooding through tonight though
within those back bay and bayside communities. The Coastal Flood
Advisory was extended through 9 AM tomorrow.
No further tidal issues expected elsewhere.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020-
     026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM/Staarmann
LONG TERM...RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...Guzzo/Staarmann
MARINE...Guzzo/Staarmann
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion