Kuna, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

554
FXUS65 KBOI 052014
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
214 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Showers and storms
have already begun to develop in SE Oregon and along the ID/NV
border this afternoon. Coverage is expected to increase to
scattered by this evening, and the possibility for abundant
lightning with gusty outflows has prompted the issuance of a Red
Flag Warning. Precipitable water content is about at the 75th
percentile, so storms could produce moderate rainfall rates.
Outflow gusts up to 50 mph are possible around storms, and may
travel far away from storms resulting in brief gusty winds even
for areas that don`t see lightning or precipitation. The trough
providing the dynamics and moisture will swing through
tomorrow, supporting another day of scattered storms Saturday
afternoon and evening, with largely the same storm
characteristics as today, but shifted up into parts of SW Idaho
and E Oregon. As the trough exits Saturday night, it will help
to mix out surface smoke that is expected to persist from now
through Saturday. It will also bring breezier conditions to SE
Oregon and the ID/NV border as forcing increases behind the
wave, potentially leading to another fire weather concern with
conditions still warm and dry.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The primary low in the
short term will steadily move inland Monday, centered over the
Oregon coast. After which, it will stall over the PacNW coast
Tuesday evening, moving over our area by Thursday evening. The
overall weather change will be lowering temperatures to 10
degrees below normal by Wednesday thanks to the colder airmass
around the low pressure system. However, it will also bring more
moist southwesterly flow, leading to 30% precipitation chances
Tuesday through Thursday. The storm mode will be mostly
convective, with a focus on storm potential in the late
afternoons. Minimum relative humidities will come up in the
middle of next week with the moisture and lower temps.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR and local MVFR with smoke layers. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern OR and ID/NV
border. Outflow gusts could be as high as 45 kt. Surface winds:
variable 5-10kt, with gusts up to 20 kts in the Snake Plain this
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15kt.
KBOI...VFR with minor visibility reductions due to smoke. Brief
15-25 mph gusts from distance storms possible this evening (10%
chance). Surface winds SE 5-15kt, shifting to NW 5-10kt late
afternoon through the evening.
Weekend Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 45kt possible.
Drier conditions on Sunday in eastern OR with lingering showers
and storms over ID mountains. Breezy southwest winds Sunday
afternoon, especially eastern OR and southwest ID highlands.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening ORZ670.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion