La Harpe, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS63 KDVN 082311
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will trend above normal for the second half of
  the week and into next week. The Climate Prediction Center has
  a slight risk (20-40%) for excessive heat next week.
- A mainly dry week with low prospects for rain over the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Quiet conditions will be seen late this afternoon and overnight as
southerly flow remains across the area.
On Tuesday waa aloft will bring an increase in clouds. Forecast
soundings remain quite dry so most of the moisture will go into
cloud production. There is the possibility of some sprinkles or
isolated showers developing during the late morning and afternoon
hours mainly north of I-80.
The dry ground will result in large diurnal temperature swings in
spite of the increasing clouds tonight and Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tuesday night
Assessment...low (90%) confidence of above normal temperatures
The well advertised warm up commences the second half of the week as
the upper ridge builds north into the Midwest. There will be small
surge of moisture associated with the warm up but dew points will
get no higher than the lower 60s.
Friday night through Monday
Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of above normal
temperatures. Low (20-30%) confidence regarding rain chances.
The above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and
into next week. Starting Monday the Climate Prediction Center has a
slight risk (20-40%) of excessive heat for the area.
The rain prospects are more questionable.
Friday night the model consensus has 20-30% rain chances north and
east of an Independence, IA to Aledo, IL line. A surge of waa aloft
with some moisture appears to be the main reason several of the
ensemble runs are generating precipitation. Several of the
deterministic model runs advocate dry conditions. The rain chances
may be overdone but sprinkles or isolated showers in the waa cannot
be ruled out.
Saturday night and especially Sunday the global models swing a
backdoor cold front into the area with said front dissolving across
the area Sunday night. While the front provides low level forcing
and moisture is more plentiful, the overall forcing is weak. Thus
the 20-30% pops the model consensus is providing may be a bit on the
high side given the dissolving nature of the front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. High
clouds will be common through Tuesday afternoon. Although a
trough is expected to approach the region Tuesday afternoon,
abundant dry air in the lower levels should prohibit any
measurable precipitation at the TAF terminals. Some sprinkles
are possible, but no impacts to flight conditions are expected.
South to southeast winds will remain in the picture, with
magnitudes hovering around 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Schultz

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion