La Luz New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

767
FXUS64 KEPZ 071813
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1213 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through Saturday
   before cooling down going into early next week.
- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through
   Wednesday with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring
   northern and eastern areas.
-  Drier conditions Thursday through Friday, trending back up
   Sunday into Tuesday with some remnant tropical moisture trying
   to move into the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A fairly stagnant pattern, especially early on with a trough over
the eastern US, a ridge central and a trough west. This will
slowly progress eastward going into next week, but for the
Borderland, this will lead to a general southwest upper level
flow. There was an initial push of cooler/moist air last night
that made it to the RGV but has since started to make it to the
AZ border. Moisture over the area is above normal with PW`s
getting into the 1"-1.25" range over much of the next 7 days.
Tonight and Wed, there will be some instability and some
disturbances moving out of Mexico across the area that will
trigger showers and thunderstorms. Seeing some convergence over
the RGV area around H70 this evening and this may be the focus for
development which will then push NE. Could see some locally heavy
rain if training develops as well as a couple stronger cells with
good shear over the area.  Looks like the main timeframe will be
tonight, but some storms will linger over the north and west
tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies and higher dew points across the
region will keep lows warmer than the last several days,
especially west and north where the moisture push just moved in.
Highs tomorrow will be highly dependent on cloud cover, MET
Guidance is more bullish on keeping clouds around and cooler temps
while the MAV and NBM are much warmer. Going to expect some effect
from the cloud cover and went below NBM/MAV but above MET.
One issue that we will have for the next several days will be a
persistent east-southeast wind. This will be most pronounced on
western mountain slopes and especially out in Hidalgo and southern
Grant counties. This is a pattern that will usually bring winds
of 15-30 mph with higher gusts on the Lordsburg Playa, so we may
need to monitor for some patchy dust.
Upper ridge will prevail and keep the area dry for Thu/Fri with
temperatures warming into the 80s for most of the lowlands. During
this time, Hurricane Priscilla will be moving NNW and get caught
up in the southwest flow ahead of trough off the west coast. It
looks like most of the tropical moisture will move north of the
area, but we will see some precip return starting Saturday with
the breakdown of the upper ridge. The question then becomes how
the next tropical system, possibly Raymond, will move. The GFS is
much slower with this while the EC is the faster solution. Either
way, some of this moisture looks like it will move over the area.
GFS takes it`s time bringing it through and puts out 1-2" of rain
for much of the area Sun-Tue. At this time it`s too early to have
high confidence in the speed this storm will move, so will keep at
least chance PoPs going into early next week with cooler
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Breezy southeast winds of 10-15G20-25KT will continue this afternoon
with thunderstorms over the Sacramento Mtns. Showers and
thunderstorms will push into the area after 00Z from Mexico. PROB30s
in the TAF for all terminals to account for these hit and miss
storms overnight. Breezy east to southeast winds later this evening
continuing overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Fire weather will not be a big concern over the next week with a
persistent east-southeast flow through the end of the week keeping
RH`s in the 20s and 30s. There will be some scattered showers and
storms through Wednesday followed by dry weather for Thu/Fri. The
breakdown of an upper ridge will bring a surge of moisture from
the west going into the weekend and early next week with some
widespread wetting rains expected along with higher RH`s and
cooler temperatures. Winds over the I-10 corridor may be a concern
through Friday with sustained speeds of 15-30mph possible,
especially west of Deming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  83  67  83 /  30  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca            59  78  59  78 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces               61  81  61  78 /  50  20  10   0
Alamogordo               59  80  59  79 /  50  20  10   0
Cloudcroft               43  57  42  57 /  50  30  10  10
Truth or Consequences    58  77  59  75 /  50  30  20  10
Silver City              55  75  56  72 /  30  30  30  10
Deming                   63  82  64  81 /  40  20  20  10
Lordsburg                62  81  64  81 /  10  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro       67  82  67  81 /  30  20  10   0
Dell City                62  82  60  80 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             67  83  65  85 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               60  75  59  74 /  30  10   0   0
Fabens                   67  84  65  83 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  82  64  80 /  40  20  10   0
White Sands HQ           62  80  63  78 /  50  20  10   0
Jornada Range            61  80  60  78 /  50  20  10  10
Hatch                    61  82  61  81 /  40  20  20  10
Columbus                 64  84  65  83 /  30  10  10   0
Orogrande                60  79  60  78 /  50  20  10   0
Mayhill                  48  65  48  66 /  50  30  10  10
Mescalero                48  69  47  69 /  50  30  20  10
Timberon                 47  66  47  65 /  50  20  10  10
Winston                  49  71  50  68 /  40  40  30  20
Hillsboro                56  77  57  76 /  50  30  20  10
Spaceport                57  79  58  77 /  50  30  20  10
Lake Roberts             52  73  52  72 /  30  40  30  20
Hurley                   56  76  57  77 /  30  20  30  10
Cliff                    57  82  59  80 /  20  40  30  10
Mule Creek               54  80  56  76 /  10  40  30  20
Faywood                  57  75  58  73 /  40  20  20  10
Animas                   62  83  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
Hachita                  62  81  62  79 /  20  10  20  10
Antelope Wells           61  82  61  81 /  20  10  20  10
Cloverdale               60  78  60  77 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz
AVIATION...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion