Lake Ann, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

006
FXUS63 KAPX 140645
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
245 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally warm and dry conditions ahead.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Southerly flow through the central US as pattern across the
continent remains rather bunched up. Upper ridge axis centered over
the Mid MS Valley, and bulk of the moisture is wrapping around the
this into IL/IN, with some connection to shortwave ridge axis over
Manitoba. However...strong northerly flow across eastern Canada
keeping this upstream moisture/warmth from getting closer to us,
resulting in a deformation axis over the Great Lakes...with bulk of
the moisture remaining to our west, save for some nuisance lower-
level moisture hanging around in the form of clouds across the
eastern UP and NE Lower MI (as well as some patchy fog in a few
spots).
Ridge axis builds overhead today into Monday as northerly flow
sweeps by to our east...with Hudson Bay high pressure gaining
control of our weather...keeping deepest moisture to our west.
However, it may take a bit for some of that lingering moisture to
dry out...and expect some clouds to hang around today across the UP
and northeast Lower...with a generally quiet night (though some
patchy fog possible) tonight.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Rogue shower today?...Not impossible a rogue shower could develop in
the afternoon with subtle backdoor cold front dropping
through/stalling out in combination with lake breeze
development...and drying influences may not have enough of a hold
yet to scour out all the moisture in the lower levels. Still...
expect most, if not all, areas remain dry today and tonight...as
convection should be minimized by warm nose overhead...and low-
levels look rather dry per most guidance soundings (save for the
usual overly-moist suspects). Therefore, think hi-res probabilistic
guidance is a bit aggressive in spitting out 30-40 percent chances
for 0.01-in of rain during the afternoon...though again, not
entirely out of the realm of possibilities. East flow downsloping
plus subsidence aloft with the ridge overhead suggests temps will
rise into the 80s today, particularly across NW Lower, where a few
of the hot spots could creep up toward 85F in the afternoon.
Based on persistence, think some patchy fog will be possible again
tonight, as we`ve been dealing with through the bulk of the last
several nights. Even though we should be starting to dry out...think
it will not have had enough time to scour everything out enough to
preclude fog development overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Days 2-3 (Monday-Tuesday)...
Warm and dry...
Ridge axis overhead Monday, with high pressure centered off to our
northeast...though it should hold enough influence to allow for
afternoon lake breezes across the area and prevailing E/SE flow.
Think that with subsidence from the ridge overhead, and east-flow
downsloping, a few areas will again make a run at 85F near and west
of the US-131 corridor...potentially both Monday and Tuesday. Have
concerns the setup may be favorable for fairly aggressive
drying...which could drop minimum afternoon RHs toward or below 30
percent in some locales (most likely in the Cadillac/Wellston area)
for fire weather concerns.
Days 4-7 (Wednesday-Saturday)...
Warm and dry weather likely to prevail into the latter half of next
week, with potential for the ridge to do its best to hold onto the
area as some upstream energy looks to get cutoff somewhere across
the central US in a rather nebulous pattern overall. Unclear if/when
this will meander into our area at some point...but there are some
signals for Canadian high pressure to build back into our area going
into the end of the period, with troughing wanting to hold onto the
eastern US/Canada. This idea suggests continued warm and dry weather
for us in the Northwoods, which could be problematic for fire
weather concerns...until such a time as troughing does meander back
in...but do not have much confidence in the long-term forecast yet.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Some early morning fog today, especially MBL/PLN, IFR to perhaps
LIFR at times. Enough higher clouds at CIU/APN to limit fog
potential, at least for now. TVC may nose into MVFR territory at
some point. All sites improve to VFR by 14Z. Spotty fog seems
likely again toward the very end of this TAF period. Light
winds.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion