Lake Bastrop - South Shores Park, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

967
FXUS64 KEWX 050555
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average October warmth continues with minor (10-20%) rain
  chances early to midweek
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A quiet but warm weather pattern will remain across South-Central
Texas as the region is in-between troughing over the Intermountain
west and a weak upper level low off the Louisiana coast that looks
to drift northward and weaken into the background flow by early
Monday. A slight uptick in the onshore flow and low-level moisture
levels on Monday afternoon may be able to help support for the sea
breeze to reach portions of our coastal plain counties, which may
help generate a few showers. Otherwise, rain chances are to remain
minimal with mostly sunny skies through today before skies trend
more partly cloudy for areas along and east of I-35 on Monday. The
temperatures stay above average with the afternoon highs ranging
from the mid to upper 80s for portions of the Hill Country to the
low to mid 90s elsewhere. The morning lows will range from the low
60s to near 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Sub-tropcial ridging builds across the northern Gulf through early
week and slides westward atop the state later during the week and
towards the start of next weekend. Tuesday and Wednesday continues
to be the primary window for some spotty showers, perhaps a stray
storm, as PWATs increase up into the 50 to 75 percentile range for
this time of year. With that said, these chances are rather small
with the majority remaining rain free. Some of this activity could
be generated with some help from a rather diffuse frontal boundary
drifting into the Waco area. Otherwise, there could be some high
clouds coming from the Eastern Pacific as well. Rain chances are to
then dwindle beyond Wednesday with the increasing subsidence from
the ridge positioning more atop of the region. The above average
temperatures will remain persistent but nights do become a tad
more humid.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR flight conditions should continue. A region of low clouds may
establish between San Antonio and the Rio Grande near or shortly
after sunrise. Some low clouds may bleed over to the terminals
but no impacts are expected at this time. Otherwise, there may be
a few high clouds passing at times. The winds trend the lightest
through the early morning hours, otherwise expect for winds of
around 10 kts or less from the east to east-southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  68  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  68  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            89  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  67  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             92  68  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  68  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  69  93  70 /   0   0  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  70  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           94  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...62

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion