Lake Butner North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS62 KRAH 131826
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
226 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of areas of low pressure will meander off the Middle and
South Atlantic coasts through early Tuesday, while high pressure
will build from the OH and TN Valleys to the southern Appalachians.
A dry, backdoor cold front will move south across the region
Wednesday evening, followed by Canadian high pressure that will
build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Monday...
Aloft, the 12Z upper air analyses show two distinct areas of low
pressure at H5, one over wrn PA and the other off the SC coast,
embedded within a larger, elongated low/trough over the eastern US.
These lows will drift toward one another, gradually merging into one
low over or just off the mid-Atlantic coast this eve/tonight. The
low will subsequently shift ewd/enewd through the rest of the night.
Meanwhile, the sub-tropical ridge, stretching from srn TX to the
Great Lakes at 12Z, will broaden slightly but generally remain in
place through tonight. At the surface, the 18Z surface analysis
shows a pair of lows, one off the NJ/DE coast and the other off the
NC/SC coast, embedded within a larger, N-S elongated area of low
pressure offshore. The lows should generally approach one another,
with the srn low eventually absorbing the nrn low off the NC coast
tonight. Generally expect nly to nwly flow to prevail across the
area, with intermittent gusts of 15-20 kts, mainly in the east.
Cloud cover has already started decreasing across portions of the
Piedmont, and that trend should continue slowly ewd through the
aft/eve, but the Coastal Plain may remain cloudy through the
evening. Cloud cover should increase once again from the NE late
eve/tonight as the nrn low slides toward the area. Consequently,
highs today should range from mid 70s west to mid/upper 60s east. As
noted in the previous discussion for late tonight into early Tue
morning, a deformation band in moist, nly flow around the coastal
low forecast to drift down the srn Middle Atlantic coast will
overspread the nrn and cntl Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont.
Related, renewed isentropic lift/moisture transport centered in the
295-300 K layer (and 850 mb level) will probably support adequate
lift to generate patchy light rain there Tue morning. Amounts should
be light, on the order of a few hundredths or less, mainly over the
nrn/cntl Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont. Lows tonight still
generally expected to bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Monday...
Aloft, the low off the NC/VA coast early Tue should continue to
progress ewd over the Atlantic through Tue night, with the sub-
tropical ridge gradually building in from the west. Similarly at the
surface, the low will continue ewd out over the Atlantic Tue/Tue
night, with high pressure building in from the NW in its wake. Nly
flow will prevail. Some light rain could linger over the Coastal
Plain early Tue morning before shifting ewd out of the area as the
low moves away. Otherwise, the weather should be largely dry. Cloud
cover should vary across the area during the day, mostly sunny west
to mostly cloudy/overcast east. Winds may still be a bit gusty at
times through the day Tue, especially in the east. Temperatures in
the east will depend on the lingering rain and cloud cover, but
generally expect highs to range from mid/upper 70s west to mid/upper
60s east. Lows Tue night should again be in the low to mid 50s.
&&
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...
* Dry Wednesday through Saturday.
* Chilly overnight temperatures Thurs/Fri night.
* Chance of precip returns Sunday, clearing out Monday.
As the upper level low off the coast continues to shift east, a
large upper level ridge will build across the Central Plains. By
Saturday, the ridge axis is expected to be over the eastern US. By
Sunday a deep upper level trough will swing across the region
bringing ample moisture.
At the surface, a cold Canadian a high pressure will slowly shift
from Minnesota over the Great Lakes before extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. As the dry cold front passes through
the region Thursday expect breezy conditions (wind gusts of 15-
20mph) Wed/Thurs, especially across eastern portions of central NC.
Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday
then after the dry cold front moves across the region temps will
become below average Thursday and Friday with highs in the 60s to
near 70. As cool dry high pressure filters in good radiational
cooling will result in temperatures to further drop overnight into
the upper 30s  to low 40s Thursday night then upper 40s to mid 50s
as the surface high shifts across and east of the region late week.
Still watching trends with the longer range models as they show
another deep surface trough developing across the MS valley Sunday.
Timing is uncertain at this time but generally expect the next
chance of precip to move into our region Sunday into Monday next
week. The frontal boundary will swing across the area and Monday is
expected to clear out and be dry. Temps will largely depend on the
timing of the front but for now have highs in the mid/upper 70s with
lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...
MVFR cigs now around 2,000 ft will continue to gradually lift while
also clearing to VFR from NW to SE, which has already progressed
through the Triad terminals. N to NWly winds are expected to
continue to gust 15 to 20 kts through this afternoon before ceasing
early this evening with loss of heating. A resurgence of MVFR to
perhaps IFR cigs will shift from VA into northeast NC tonight into
Tues morning. Highest confidence is at RWI where low-MVFR to a brief
period of IFR is expected and may be accompanied by sprinkles and
light rain, although rain rates and intensity should be low enough
to not produce any vsby restrictions below 6SM. Cigs will likely
persist through the morning hours before gradually lifting/shifting
eastward, last to improve to VFR at RWI early Tues evening.
Outlook: Once the aforementioned ceilings lift and scatter to VFR, a
prolonged period of VFR conditions is likely throughout cntl NC the
rest of the week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10/MWS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AS/MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion