Lake Como, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

560
FXUS62 KJAX 221740
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday all Local Beaches
- Inland Heat Indices 100-105F Tuesday through Friday
- Daily Isolated Thunderstorm Risk Returns Today
- Tropical Atlantic Becoming Active  Monitor hurricanes.gov
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure across the eastern seaboard will gradually weaken
and retreat east-northeastward into the western Atlantic as local
coastal troughing shifts onshore. Better moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.8
in) today due to the continued onshore flow will support isolated
to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing
along the Atlantic sea breeze as it shifts westward toward I-75
this afternoon. In the ENE flow, highs will range from the mid 80s
along the SE GA coast to the low 90s along the I-75 corridor.
Showers decrease in coverage this evening. Calming winds overnight
and lingering low level moisture will set the stage for another
round of inland patchy fog early Tuesday morning. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast
and north-central FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Elevated moisture levels into midweek will continue the daily
chances of precipitation chances for locations mainly in NE FL.
Tuesday, light northeasterly flow will usher in early morning showers
from over the local waters and towards coastal locations. By the
afternoon hours, activity will begin to spread towards interior
locations as sea breezes from the Gulf and Atlantic converge, with
best chances of precipitation (30% to 40%) over NE FL as moisture
continues to filter into the area from the south with PWATs from
1.8" to 2". For any storms that do develop, a few may be on the
stronger side with gusty wet downbursts possible due to a
shortwave shifting across the area. By evening, showers and storms
will begin to taper off with the lost of diurnal heating.
Temperatures begin to warm on Tuesday as Highs reach into the
lower 90s for locations west of the I-95 corridor and the upper
80s along the coast. Overnight lows in the primarily in the lower
70s over inland locations, with mid 70s along coastal locations.
Wednesday, similar pattern to Tuesday, with isolated to scattered
showers and storms for locations over NE FL as a weak ridge
passes over the northern portion of our area and keep drier
conditions over SE GA. Temperature will continue to warm as highs
will rise to the lower 90s to close mid 90s for most locations as
coastal locations will be in the upper 80s.
With a warming trend into midweek and the increase in moisture,
heat index values are likely to reach into the lower 100s over
inland locations, low to mid 90s for coastal locations, keeping
conditions below local heat advisory criteria (108F-112F).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A mid/upper low over the central CONUS will begin to shift eastward
by the later half of the week, with an associated cold front
shifting towards the SE CONUS. A return of scattered convection
for most locations by Thursday as southwesterly flow ahead of the
boundary will bring in further moisture from the Gulf. By Friday,
continued influx of Gulf moisture will bring chances of precipitation
to rise to around the 60% range for locations primarily north of
north central FL. Guidance continues to show the frontal boundary
stalling over the area during the upcoming weekend, with higher
chances of precipitation for locations south of the frontal
boundary.
Temperature Highs will remain up in the lower 90s on Thursday, but
begin to trend down with as the frontal boundary enters the area
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the week
and through the weekend. Overnight lows will continue to be low
to mid 70s along the coast and north central Florida, upper 60s
over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL.
NHC is monitoring 2 areas for potential tropical cyclone
development over the next 7 days. The first has a 40% chance of
development as a tropical wave approaches the Leeward Island today
begins a northward turn later this week near the Bahamas. The
second has a 70% chance of development with another tropical wave
between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. As was
stated during the previous AFD, east coast troughing looks to keep
activity offshore of the southeast Atlantic sea board based on
ensemble model runs. Indirect marine and surf zone impacts are
possible. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts at
hurricanes.gov
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated showers and storms will pass by SSI and the JAX metro
sites through 22Z then potentially to GNV in the 20Z - 00Z
time frame. Conditions will briefly lower if a shower/storm
passes overhead. Winds calm after 00Z with another chance for
inland fog/stratus after 07Z. Have TEMPOs in for IFR/LIFR
conditions at GNV and VQQ toward sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
East northeasterly winds will continue today as high pressure to the
north northeast begins to slowly retreat eastward while coastal
troughing weakens and moves onshore bringing isolated to scattered
coastal showers over the Southeast Georgia waters to the coast.
Tuesday, winds become more easterly and lighter as weak high
pressure moves southward down the U.S. eastern seaboard. Wednesday
into Thursday, high pressure will extend across south Florida as a
surface front approaches from the west-northwest. Increasing showers
expected Friday into Saturday as the front arrives into the area
waters bringing elevated southerly winds and potentially exercise
caution conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Trends in the past 24 hours show portions of the St Johns river
peak water levels rising well into action stage between
1.2-1.4 ft MHHW. Through at this time PETSS guidance is not
showing a strong signal for Minor flooding which is
exceeding 1.5 ft MHHW (above dry ground) today, so holding off
on a Coastal Flood Advisory for this forecast. However, will
continue to monitor observations and new guidance for a coastal
flood advisory Tuesday or Wednesday over the lower St Johns river
as light onshore flow continues preventing river drainage this week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record highs and high minimum temperatures for the next
few days are below:
DATE     9/23     9/24     9/25     Normals
JAX      95/1925  94/2019  96/2019  High: 86
         78/1933  78/1951  76/1930  Low: 69
CRG      91/2016  93/2019  95/2019  High: 85
         79/2005  77/2017  76/1998  Low: 71
GNV      97/1925  95/1997  96/1931  High: 87
         75/1933  75/1998  74/2010  Low: 68
AMG      94/2010  95/2019  98/1961  High: 86
         76/2000  74/2000  74/1988  Low: 65
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
SSI  72  86  73  88 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  71  90  71  92 /  10  20   0  20
SGJ  73  88  73  90 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  69  93  71  94 /  10  30  10  30
OCF  72  92  72  94 /  10  40  10  30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion