Lake Fort Scott, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

821
FXUS63 KSGF 200729
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 60-80% chances for overnight and daily thunderstorm complexes
  to impact portions of the area through this weekend. Small
  hail and localized flooding are the main hazards.
- More seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will
  occur through the coming week. While most rain chances will
  be scattered, there is potential for at least one day to see
  more widespread rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Satellite imagery showed a storm complex moving across eastern
Kansas early this morning associated with an upper level subtle
shortwave within the west to northwesterly flow aloft. Synoptic
models continue this system east and into far southeastern
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks around sunrise with the system
moving slowly east through the day.
However, CAMS have begun to show a slightly more southerly track
of the system which would potentially keep much rainfall from
impacting portions of central Missouri with the best chances for
rain to fall across southwestern Missouri. Areas southwest of a
Nevada to Branson line (60-80%), though some models bring the
system a bit farther northward into the Springfield and
surrounding areas through this afternoon. Despite the possible
southward shift, most areas should see light to moderate rain.
Limited instability will be available with CAM forecast
soundings maintaining from 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. While
this will be enough to allow for the storm complex to remain
organized, any severe potential will be rather limited.
By this evening, a 30-35kt LLJ will move over the region as a
mid and upper level shortwave reinforces the rain potential
across the region. There will likely be periods of dry weather
for portions of the Ozarks this afternoon in advance of the next
middle and upper level shortwave moving over the region.
Depending on the orientation of the storms the background PWATS
from 1 to 1.5" would allow for some efficient rainfall and the
potential for at least a few brief training storms which may
lead to some localized flooding. LPMMs have continued with from
0.5 to 1.5 inches across our southwestern CWA, with localized
areas up to 3-4 inches. Amounts then taper off the farther north
and east across central Missouri.
with increasing clouds and rain around through the day,
temperatures are expected to be cooler in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
The overall setup changes little into tonight and Sunday
morning as another short wave moves across the region with
similar jet interactions though a more organized 250mb jet does
nose into the Ozarks. A NW-SE band of showers and thunderstorms
are then expected to develop somewhere over our region into
Sunday morning. Localized flooding and small hail would be the
main hazards with these storms, though an outlier solution
depicted by CAMs give a slight potential (

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion