Lake Los Angeles California Weather Forecast Discussion

968
FXUS66 KLOX 091817
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1117 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...09/317 AM.
Tropical Cyclone Priscilla may send showers and thunderstorms
into Los Angeles County today into early Friday, along with
elevated humidity. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the
weekend, followed by chances of rain early next week as a storm
system drops into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/843 AM.
***UPDATE***
High clouds associated with Priscilla`s moisture are streaming
above southern and eastern LA County this morning, however, all
shower and thunderstorm activity is to the south and east across
eastern San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. LA
County is still on the periphery of the outer bands of mositure
through Friday. Most recent CAMs are trending shower and
thunderstorm starts slightly later, with most activity starting
in the early afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm potential still
exists into Friday evening, but this afternoon through this
evening is still on track to have the highest chances.
The lack of marine layer coverage, especially south of Point
Conception, has allowed most coastal and and coastal valley
temperatures to cool this morning compared to yesterday, however,
expect a rapid warm up this morning with highs around 3 to 5
degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight lows will warm a few
degrees in most areas from Santa Barbara City south as that
subtropical mositure works its way into the region.
***From Previous Discussion***
Mositure from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla will reach the region
today, resulting in elevated humidity and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms focused across Los Angeles County, today into early
Friday. The majority of weather activity over the Continental US
due to Priscilla will be the the south and east of the region, as
LA County is on the far western periphery of impacts. Showers and
thunderstorms will become possible late this morning, focused over
the eastern portion of LA County and the coastal waters off the
coast of Orange County. Limited and elevated moisture initially,
will make measurable rain difficult early today, and thus the
greatest risk may be dry lighting and fire starts. This afternoon
and evening, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase,
focused over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. Tonight into early
Friday, there is a slight chance of shower and thunderstorms
across the majority of LA County and skimming the Ventura County
line.
Rainfall totals are expected to generally be light if any (under
0.25 inches), with just a remote risk (< 5% chance) of any flash
flooding or burn scar debris flows. The highest totals and risk of
flooding will be for the eastern San Gabriel mountains, due to
the higher elevation, thus anyone near the Bridge scar is advised
to pay close attention to weather conditions. Overall however,
most locations across LA County will see little to no rain through
Friday.
For Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, mostly
benign weather is expected, with minimal marine layer stratus and
temperature near or below normal. This weekend, cloud coverage may
trend upwards, especially during the overnight to morning hours.
Additionally, gusty north-northwest winds are expected along
Central Coast, Southwest Santa Barbara County, the I-5 corridor,
and the Antelope Valley, late Friday through Saturday night, with
Wind Advisories possible on Saturday.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/315 AM.
A low pressure storm system will drop down from western Canada
and slide down just off the California coastline on Monday, then
cutting across the state late Tuesday. The exact trajectory of
the low will determine the rainfall totals. Some ensemble members
favor a more westward trajectory of the low over the coastal
waters, which would allow for greater moisture in the storm system
and higher rainfall totals over the SoCal region. Confidence in
some amount of rainfall with this storm is trending upwards with
the latest model runs. There is now around a 70-80% chance of
seeing rain across the entire region, however the highest chance
for rain is still for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties.
The bulk of the rain is likely to fall Monday night through
Tuesday, with lingering rain chances through Wednesday. There is
low confidence in exact rain totals, however there is the
potential for storm total rain as high as 1.5-3 inches for San
Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, and 0.5-1.5 inches for LA
and Ventura Counties. Southwesterly flow may result in some
terrain driven enhances of rain totals for mountain ranges,
especially for the west or south- facing slopes. Alternatively, if
the center of the low travels mostly over land opposed to the
coastal waters, rainfall totals may end up largely under 0.5
inches across the region.
Strong onshore winds and low 500 mb heights will combine with
possible rainfall and cloud cover, to yield a period of well
below normal temperatures and unsettled conditions, Monday
through at least Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...09/1816Z.
At 1708Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3300 ft with a temperature of 20 C.
Moderate confidence for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, & KOXR. There is a 30%
chance of IFR CIGs at KSBP from 03Z to 15Z Friday. Moderate chc
for IFR CIGs at KSMX when clouds arrive. There is a 20% chance
for MVFR CIGs at KOXR/KCMA from 03Z to 12Z Fri. Arrival and
Clearing times should be accurate within +/- 2 hours.
High confidence for remaining TAFs. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon through end of forecast period at
Los Angeles County terminals.
KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance of a
thunderstorm this afternoon through end of forecast period. No
significant east wind component expected. However, there is the
possibility that a thunderstorm develops east of the terminal
which could produce significant easterly outflow.
KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected thru
the period. There is a 15% chance of a thunderstorm this evening
through end of the forecast period. No wind impacts are expected
at this time, but there is a less than 5 percent chance of a
significant wind impact due to storm outflow.
&&
.MARINE...09/850 AM.
***UPDATE***
1) Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the waters adjacent to Los
Angeles and Orange Counties (PZZ655) valid this afternoon &
evening. Local gusts up to 25 kt will be possible near Point Dume
& across the San Pedro Channel.
2) Adjusted the start time for the Marine Weather Statement to
begin at 3PM to account for delayed arrival of the thunderstorm
potential over the southern coastal waters.
3) Will need to monitor the westward extent of thunderstorm
potential, as some guidance suggest that most activity may stay
east of PZZ676. Thus, stay tuned for future updates.
==================================================================
For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions will
very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through early Friday morning. Local gusts near SCA levels are
possible south of Point Conception this evening. There is an
increasing chance of SCA level winds on Friday with an imminent
(80-100 percent) chance of SCA conditions by Friday afternoon and
lingering through at least early Tuesday. There is a high-to-
likely (50-70 percent) chance of GALES Friday evening through
Saturday evening, highest from the waters near Point Conception
south to San Nicolas Island. At least, widespread SCA conditions
are to be expected between Friday evening and Saturday evening.
Inexperienced boaters should seek or remain in safe harbor during
this period.
Inside the southern California bight, conditions should generally
remain below SCA criteria through Friday afternoon. Local SCA
gusts with choppy seas are possible near Point Dume and across
the San Pedro Channel this afternoon & evening. There is a high-
to- likely (50-70 percent) chance for SCA level winds Friday and
Saturday, with highest chances across the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel. There is low-to-moderate (20-40 percent)
chance of GALES on Saturday afternoon and evening with a high (50
percent) chance of short-period hazardous seas developing across
the Santa Barbara Channel.
Moisture associated with rapidly weakening Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla off the Baja California coast will move north through
today through Friday and bring a slight (10-20 percent) chance of
showers and thunderstorms for the southern coastal waters, highest
from south of Dana Point into the San Pedro Channel adjacent to
Los Angeles and Orange Counties this afternoon through early
Friday morning. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of
producing locally gale force winds and rough seas, dangerous
lightning, and heavy rainfall with reduced visibility, and even a
waterspout.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday evening through late
      Saturday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Lewis
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Hall/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/Schoenfeld
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion