Lake Luzerne New York Weather Forecast Discussion

492
FXUS61 KALY 132300
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
700 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy northerly winds continue through tonight with periodic
rain showers gradually diminishing as our coastal storm slowly
exits off shore. Dry and seasonable for the rest of the week
with breezy winds returning Wednesday into Thursday as a cold
front pushes through. Temperatures trend warmer for this weekend
ahead of our next potential disturbance for early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Latest water vapor and IR imagery overlapped with the latest
RAP pressure and height analysis shows our coastal low
meandering off the NJ coast with a ~1030hPa high positioned to
the north over eastern Quebec. The tight pressure gradient
between these two has resulted in gusty northerly winds today
across much of eastern NY and western New England with NYS
mesonet, ASOS, and backyard weather stations showing gusts up to
20 to 35mph, locally higher in the higher terrain areas of
western New England. In addition, rain showers continue rotating
inland from our coastal low with hourly rainfall amounts up to
0.10-0.15" under more organized rain bands. Outside of these
steadier rain bands, rain showers have generally been quite
light and intermittent. Given that rain will trend lighter
through the rest of the day, especially as easterly winds result
in downsloping off the southern Greens, Berkshires, and
Taconics, we only expect an additional 0.10 to 0.25" of rain
with less than a 20% chance for an additional 0.50" or more.
Highest amounts expected along the east facing slopes of the
southern Green, Berkshires, Taconics and eastern Catskills.
Despite the persistent onshore flow, confidence in tidal
flooding occurring along the Hudson River for parts of the mid
Hudson Valley has decreased. Reasons for this are lower high
tide crests to our south and more of a northeasterly wind fetch
instead of an easterly fetch down the Long Island Sound. In
addition, northerly winds funneling down the Hudson are acting
to counteract the tidal surge. The official forecast for the
Hudson River at Poughkeepsie still shows it reaching a few
tenths above flood stage during the high tide cycle this evening
but confidence remains low. Main impacts from any tidal
flooding would be water briefly impacting boat docks, parking
lots, roads and boat launches along the waterfront. See our
water.noaa.gov for more details.
By Tuesday morning, subsidence from a 595dm ridge from the
Central CONUS builds into the Northeast as our coastal low exits
further out to sea supporting a mainly dry forecast. Mid-level
moisture lingers supporting mainly cloudy but some limited
breaks of sun likely by late afternoon as the ridge axis shifts
into New England. Otherwise, temperatures trend a bit warmer
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Dry weather continues
into Wednesday with the ridge axis overhead. With a ~1030hPa
high in Ontario building eastward, the tightening pressure
gradient will support breezy winds especially by the afternoon
when a moisture starved cold front pushes through. The latest
25th to 75th percentile guidance from the NBM shows gusts
ranging 15 to 25mph with 10 to 15% chance for gusts to exceed
30mph Berkshire/Litchfield County late Wed P.M. While skies turn
clear Wed night supporting radiational cooling, the ongoing
northwesterly breeze will keep temperatures from bottoming out
and should mitigate frost formation. Will continue to monitor
temperature and winds trends.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
We remain dry and seasonable Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds overhead. Gusty northwest winds continue into
Thursday with the 25th and 75th percentile guidance from the NBM
again supporting wind gusts up to 20 to 25mph (even 25 to 30mph
in Berkshire/Litchfield), especially during peak heating. With
sunny skies in place and the northwest winds advecting a much
drier air mass into the Northeast (PWATs dropping to 0.25"), we
lowered dew points to show values falling into the 30s in
collaboration with neighboring offices. The low RH values and
gusty winds can present favorable conditions for fire spread,
depending on the fuels. We will keep a close eye on the trends
and collaborate with fire weather partners as needed.
Ridging builds into the Northeast Friday into Saturday keeping
weather conditions quiet with a warm front lifting through the
Northeast during the first half of the weekend, ushering in a
warmer air mass. Temperatures trend warmer into early next
week with a 50-70% chance for highs to be at or above 70
degrees on Sunday in valley areas before our next potential disturbance
arrives early next week. While there is still uncertainty,
probabilistic guidance shows 40-60% chances for at least 0.01"
of precipitation overspreading the entire region Sunday night
into Monday. Therefore, we show widespread chance and likely
POPs during this time period but will continue to monitor
trends.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...Flying conditions range from VFR at
ALB/GFL to MVFR at PSF and IFR at POU as of 7:00 PM EDT.
Expecting scattered showers to linger through the night tonight,
then end by around daybreak tomorrow. Overall, trend will be for
deterioration to MVFR cigs and possibly vsbys at ALB/GFL
overnight, and to IFR at POU/PSF. Low confidence on timing, so
have included tempo groups to give a better range of times.
MVFR/IFR cigs linger through early to mid-morning tomorrow, then
improve back to VFR tomorrow afternoon.
Winds remain from the E/NE tonight at 5-10 kt with some higher
gusts, although trend should be for diminishing winds and
especially gusts as the night goes on. Winds tomorrow will be
mainly from the N/NE at GFL/POU and N/NW at ALB/PSF. Kept
mention of LLWS at PSF with easterly low-level jet around 45-50
kt at 2000 ft this evening, which should weaken to to around 40
kt after 06z and diminish below LLWS criteria tomorrow morning
after 12z.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Despite the parent cyclone over the mid-Atlantic phasing with
our coastal low this evening, the coastal low is not expected to
deepen and remains slow moving as it gradually shifts further
out to sea. Given the continued weak pressure gradient overhead
between the exiting low and high to the north, somewhat breezy
winds continue overnight with gusts ranging 20-25mph, strongest
gusts in the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England. Otherwise,
cloudy skies and winds will keep temperatures elevated in the
40s with shower coverage decreasing further.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...35
HYDROLOGY...

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion