Lake Mead Rancheros Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

867
FXUS65 KVEF 141712
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1012 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A potent, early-season storm system will bring gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region today, including accumulating snow
  above 7000-8000 feet.
* Temperatures will be well below normal most of the week, with
  freezing morning low temperatures across the Owens Valley and
  Southern Great Basin Wednesday morning.
* Pleasant conditions for the remainder of the week with a gradual
  warming trend by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through early next week.
Compact 542dm low is currently located just west of Monterey, CA
and will gradually swing inland today and trek across the Great
Basin tomorrow. Thus far, most of the precipitation has remained
confined to areas along and west of the Sierra and California
coastal ranges, but as the low shifts east this morning,
precipitation will begin spilling into our western zones.
Expectations for heaviest precipitation remain favored across our
western zones, particularly Inyo County into Esmeralda/central Nye
counties as the precipitation band moves through. As the low
pivots inland and gradually weakens, the associated moisture band
will tend to become more anemic with eastward extent, becoming a
more broken precipitation band as it moves into the Las Vegas
Valley region late this afternoon and exits into Utah late
tonight. Ahead of this feature, gusty southerly winds can be
expected as well. In the higher terrain, mainly above 7000 feet,
accumulating snow remains a concern especially so early in the
season. Significant snowfall in the Sierra remains on track, with
1-2 foot amounts possible above 9000 feet. Further east, snow
amounts are more modest, but some light accumulations of 2-4
inches are still expected in the upper reaches of Lee Canyon in
the Spring Mountains today, with some slushy accumulations
possible down to Kyle Canyon this evening when the snow level
drops. Higher terrain across the southern Great Basin will also
see some light snow accumulations, including Lida Summit and
Westgard Pass.
Calmer conditions will return Wednesday onward, but cool air
beneath the trough axis and decreasing overnight winds will result
in a chilly start to the day, with widespread sub-32 degree temps
remaining expected in the northern Owens Valley near Bishop and
Big Pine. Freeze Warning has been posted for these areas, with
the first freeze of the season also possible for colder pockets
of Lincoln County.
High pressure will build in for the remainder of the week with
temperatures beginning to climb closer to seasonably normals by
Friday and remaining near normal through the weekend. However,
extended guidance hints at another cool weather system moving into
the Western US by early next week which could bring a return of
gusty conditions and cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
south-southeast winds continue into the early afternoon, turning
more south-southwest as precipitation approaches from the west.
Gusts 25-35 knots. Rain potential at the airport has become a bit
more uncertain as the band of precipitation may begin to break up.
Thus, opted to change the TEMPO to a PROB30. However, vicinity
showers and CIGs around 8kft are likely (70%). Should precipitation
hold together as it moves into the valley, CIGs may drop to ~6kft
(30% chance). Rain chances push east by 05z-07z, leaving elevated
southwest breezes and improving sky conditions it their wake.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty conditions
anticipated across the region today as a Pacific system moves in.
Winds will be more south-southeasterly ahead of the precipitation,
and more southwesterly within/behind the precipitation. Peak gusts
generally 25-40 knots. Best rain chances along and northwest of
Interstate 15. Within precipitation, expect lowered CIGs and reduced
visibilities, especially in the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley
where chances of MVFR conditions are ~50% and IFR conditions are 10-
20%. As precipitation pushes eastward overnight, sky conditions will
gradually improve in its wake.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion