Lake Ozark Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

683
FXUS63 KSGF 081054
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies are
  expected through Thursday with temperatures around seasonable
  normals.
- Above normal temperatures in the 80s are then likely (>75%
  chance) to return to the region late this week into the
  weekend. Mostly dry weather is also expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Water vapor imagery shows the frontal boundary set up to our
south, with weak zonal flow at the synoptic level, setting up to
transition to northwesterly flow aloft towards the end of the
week. Some residual low level clouds were observed along and
south of Highway 60 during the early morning hours, however
those have mostly dissipated out, with the exception along the
MO/AR border where low clouds still reside and some patchy fog
observed in low-lying areas. Some mid- level clouds continue to
push east out of Kansas, however these remain scattered at
best.
For today and tomorrow, the area will continue to find itself
at the southern edge of the high pressure, leading to cooler
temperatures. Expect highs to top out in the low to mid 70s,
which is near/slightly above normal for this time of year.
With clearer skies and calmer winds (especially east of Highway
65), overnight lows through Thursday night will be cooler,
reaching the low 50s for the majority of the area, and the mid
to upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Once we get past Thursday, midlevel heights will begin to rise
as an upper level ridge builds back up over the Plains and
slowly pushes east through the weekend. This will allow for
temperatures to climb back to above normal status, with
widespread highs in the 80s by Saturday through at least midweek
next week (5-10 degrees above normal).
With the ridging pattern, mostly dry weather is expected - with
some caveats. The first occurs Friday morning as the nose of a
low level jet and isentropic upglide bringing a low chance
(10-20%) of showers/thunderstorms primarily along/north of
Highway 54. Then, heading into the beginning of next week, an
upper level trough will approach the region from the west,
bringing additional shower/thunderstorm chances. With this being
several days out still, lots of uncertainties still exist (i.e.
timing, frontal position, etc.). Kept pops on the lower end for
now (10-25%) until we get a better grasp on this system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Some patchy fog and low clouds have been observed across the
area, bringing LIFR ceilings to KSGF during the early morning
hours. This is expected to improve by 14Z when more mixing
occurs. Otherwise, northeasterly surface winds will become
easterly by mid-morning between 5-10kts.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion