Lake Thunderbird, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS64 KOUN 032319
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist through Sunday afternoon.
-  Cold front is expected early-to-mid next week with rain/storm
   chances and cooler weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A ridge axis remains in place for the rest of today and tonight
across the area. This will continue to keep temperatures closer to
normal for August than October. Southerly winds will be breezy this
afternoon, with parts of western and northern Oklahoma seeing peak
wind gusts around 25 mph. Cloud cover will be minimal.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
An upper-level trough will move into the western US early tomorrow
and begin accelerating northeastward. However, the trough is
expected to begin shearing out tomorrow night, which means the
intrenchment of the ridge across the southeast could very well keep
all of the upper-level flow out of our area.
For tomorrow at least, the closer proximity of the trough and height
falls across the Central Plains will lead to a day that`s even
breezier than today. We won`t push wind advisory thresholds, but
peak gusts in northwest Oklahoma will most likely reach 35 mph. Fire
weather is not expected to be a concern because of the continued
presence of modified Gulf air within the boundary layer.
On Sunday, broad southwest flow will be in place across much of the
central and northern Plains. This pattern is favorable for the
development of thunderstorms across the high terrain, especially
with a frontal boundary sinking southward into Kansas during the
afternoon.  With that said, 60-hour CAM guidance anticipates that
storm activity would not reach into northwest Oklahoma until late
Sunday evening or Sunday night, if it did at all. The trend of early-
fall heat continues through Sunday.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Models show the frontal boundary making it further south across
portions of OK Tuesday/Wednesday. Showers/storms will be possible
across portions of the fa with this boundary. The early part of next
week is expected to remain warm with highs in the 80s to around 90.
With the front moving into the area and some rain, cooler
temperatures then expected towards the middle of next week,
especially in northern OK, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
LLWS is possible after 06Z near KWWR with the development of the
nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
throughout the period with winds becoming gusty by mid-morning
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         64  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion