Lakeside Village, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS64 KFWD 122307
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot but tranquil weather conditions will continue
  through next week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/
/This Weekend/
Anomalously warm mid-September temperatures will persist through
the weekend as the mid-level ridge remains the dominant feature
over Texas and the Southern Plains. Afternoon highs will generally
top out in the lower to mid 90s. Surface flow will maintain a
mostly southerly component through the period around 5 to 10 mph,
allowing for a steady return of moisture. With dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, afternoon heat index values will flirt
with the 100 degree mark this afternoon, particularly near and
east of the I-35 corridor.
The airmass overhead should remain largely capped through the
weekend, though the edge of a weak shortwave lifting across the
Central Plains will impinge on and somewhat flatten the ridge by
Sunday. This could allow for a brief window of elevated convection
across West TX/OK Sunday afternoon and evening, though the
likelihood of any rainfall reaching as far south and east as our
area remains very low. The resulting increase in high cloud cover
may temper temperatures by a degree or two but overall will not
provide much relief from the heat. Additionally, the subtle haze
associated with the western U.S. wildfire smoke aloft will
continue to enhance sunrise and sunset coloration through the
weekend but should yield no surface impacts.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025/
/Next Week/
The ridge reasserts itself Monday, maintaining seasonably hot and
dry weather through midweek with highs mostly in the low to mid
90s. A pattern change is still expected late next week as the mid-
level ridging breaks down in response to a shortwave trough
pivoting across the northern Plains. This will turn our mid-level
flow more northwesterly, potentially opening the door to low rain
chances as weak disturbances drop south. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance generally keeps convection north of the
region for now, so the forecast remains hot and dry through Friday
night.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period with generally southerly winds
around 10 kt or less. A few isolated showers developed in East TX
this afternoon but this activity will remain well east of the
major airports. An increase in mid and high cloud cover is
expected through the day Saturday, but no significant aviation
concerns are expected.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               71  92  71  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  94  71  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            72  93  72  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              75  95  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  92  71  92  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  94  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  93  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  93  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion