Lakeview, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

442
FXUS64 KLUB 060541
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the New Mexico
   state line this afternoon and evening.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday into
   early Monday morning.
- A drying and warming trend is forecast next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
02Z upper air analysis depicts a slow-moving, longwave trough over
the Upper Midwest and into the northeastern U.S., with a subtropical
ridge centered over central Mexico. The CWA was beneath a belt of
zonal flow, where a broad field of moist, isentropic ascent
associated with the monsoon continues to advect eastward over the
region. The confluence region of the jet streak(s) was advecting
over the southern Rocky Mountains, with moist ascent becoming
increasingly scant in the low-levels. Isolated-to-widely-scattered
rain showers will continue through early Saturday morning, as the
theta surfaces over the CWA will take some time to dry out following
the eastward translation of the longwave troughing. Hourly WTM
observations have measured, on average, a few hundredths of an inch
of rain, but there have been a few instances of thunderstorms which
have produced a few tenths of an inch. The potential for lightning
will continue to wane into the nighttime hours as the columns
gradually dry out and updrafts fail to reach heights high enough to
generate lightning.
At the surface, the synoptic cold front was located across the
southern South and Rolling Plains. Brisk, northeasterly winds are
ongoing; and winds were raised a few kt to account for the breeze,
which will continue through Saturday morning. Surface winds will
diminish after sunrise, as a weak anticyclone rotates into central N
TX, with winds becoming east-southeast by Saturday afternoon. Thick
overcast will persist throughout the day Saturday, restricting the
effects of diabatic heating, with highs struggling to rise out of
the middle 70s area-wide. High temperatures were lowered slightly,
especially as light rain showers and/or sprinkles will result in
enough evaporative/wet-bulb cooling of the columns to keep highs on
the cooler side.
Otherwise, storm chances of any kind are expected to be near or west
of the NM state line through the evening hours Saturday. After
sunset, a few diurnally-driven storms may propagate into the western
South Plains during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. Should
this come to fruition, a similar convective mode will occur, i.e.,
mainly rain showers, as the cells gradually weaken. Low PoPs have
been maintained with this assessment, as some moist ascent in the
low-levels will remain intact, albeit weak.
Sincavage
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
In the mid/upper-levels, the subtropical ridge will steadily amplify
over the southern Rocky Mountains, orienting the flow throughout the
steering layer towards the northwest. As the concavity of the apex
of the subtropical jet streak increases, a few vorticity lobes are
forecast to propagate southeastward along the downstream tranche of
the jet streak and eject into the southern Great Plains. These
vorticity lobes will generate diurnally-driven storms over the
higher terrain to the northwest of the CWA, with the potential for
storms to propagate into portions of the Caprock during the
afternoon and evening hours. Changes in geopotential height
tendencies will remain nearly steady, but the net increase in
northwesterly flow aloft will allow some degree of mid-level cooling
to maintain low storm chances through the evening hours Sunday. The
coverage of storms will be offset by increasing subsidence over W
TX, with low chances confined across the northern zones throughout
the overnight hours into Monday morning. High temperatures for
Sunday will certainly rebound by a couple of degrees, as the
overcast is forecast to thin out, although a surface-based cu field
will bubble where breaks in the deck occur. The low PoPs generated
by the NBM for Monday afternoon were removed, with a dry forecast
maintained through the middle of next week due to the eastward shift
in the subtropical ridge. The subsidence associated with the ridge
will nix storm chances and result in a gradual warm-up, with highs
returning to the middle 90s area-wide by the middle of next week.
Sincavage
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Low CIGs and east winds are likely to persist through the rest of
the overnight period, but confidence in which flight category will
prevail is low. Periods of IFR CIGs appear most likely at LBB and
PVW through at least mid-morning, but occasional rises to MVFR or
even VFR are also possible overnight at both sites. For now will
carry a pessimistic TAF and will amend as necessary. CDS currently
is expected to bounce between MVFR and VFR overnight. By mid-
morning, conditions are expected to begin improving with VFR
likely to return to all terminals this afternoon as surface winds
turn more southerly. Isolated SHRA will also persist over the next
several hours, but terminal impacts from precipitation appear
unlikely at this time.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion