Lamy, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

991
FXUS65 KABQ 051949
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Saturday evening. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
  flooding in areas of poor drainage, urban arroyos, and around
  wildfire burn scars. A few storms may become strong with high
  winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes.
- A warming and drying trend will occur Sunday through Tuesday
  with isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible.
  Active weather may return Wednesday and Thursday with greater
  coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Nearly all the ingredients are in place for impactful weather to
continue over the region thru Saturday. The main limiting factor is
the degree of heating and instability given uncertainty with cloud
cover today and possibly Saturday. Nonetheless, a weak upper level
shortwave trough is moving southeast around the Four Corners today
while a 65kt speed max analyzed on GOES derived motion winds moves
east thru southeast AZ. The 18Z PWAT at KABQ was 0.94" (near 90th
percentile) with a couple weak capping inversions and a convective
temp of only 75F. A strong backdoor cold front sliding southwest
thru eastern NM will help to trigger additional showers and storms
along the central mt chain and the RGV thru tonight as lift beneath
the upper jet passes thru central and southern NM. There is also
potential for a few of the storms within central NM between Santa
Fe, ABQ, Las Vegas, Santa Rosa, Corona, and Socorro to become strong
this evening with heavy rainfall, hail, strong winds, and frequent
lightning strikes. Confidence on the flash flood potential remains
highest over HPCC given the 13Z NBM 90th percentile bullseyes peak
near 2" in that area. A Flash Flood Warning or two cannot be ruled
out in the aforementioned area of strong storms based on the 12Z
HREF 6-hr max QPF values >3". The majority of model solutions also
keep activity going well into the night within central NM as forcing
from the upper jet remains in place over southern NM and low level
convergence continues along the central mt chain. Widespread low
stratus and some patchy fog may also spread to more of eastern NM
late tonight.
The overall pattern remains mostly unchanged Saturday. Partial
clearing is anticipated over more of central and western NM with
warmer max temps. Eastern NM may see delayed convective initiation
given the more widespread cloud cover. Upper level forcing will be a
tad weaker but the better heating may help with instability along
and west of the central mt chain. Guidance remains consistent
with rainfall rates peaking over the region Saturday and another
Flood Watch was added for HPCC and the Ruidoso area burn scars.
Any activity that develops Saturday afternoon will move to the
east/southeast with a couple strong storms possible again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Forecast confidence is still low to moderate on Sunday as guidance
continues to waffle around with convective coverage. Moisture will
remain above normal across the region while a shortwave ridge starts
to strengthen over northwest MX and southern AZ. A subtle 35kt speed
max moving across northeast NM will interact with moist southeast
flow across eastern NM. The 12Z NAM has SBCAPE values >2000 J/kg
over eastern NM with bulk shear near 30kt and strongly veering
wind profiles. The greatest uncertainty has been how far west
convective initiation will occur. If trends suggest another crop
of storms developing farther west to the central mt chain then
Flood Watches may be needed for burn scar areas. Otherwise, the
main threat for storms with heavy rainfall will be over eastern
NM.
Monday and Tuesday are still expected to be the quieter days as the
upper level shortwave ridge builds eastward while an unseasonably
strong H5 trough deepens along the west coast. Isolated storms
are still possible as moisture recycles around the high terrain
with much warmer temps. Extended guidance is still advertising an
uptick in storm chances Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level
trough begins to kick out across the central Rockies. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with the timing and location of the
trough. Confidence is higher than temps will trend cooler with
stronger breezes as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
More active weather will impact the airspace over the next 24 to 48
hours. Showers and storms over northern and western NM today will
move east/southeast into the RGV and nearby highlands thru late
tonight. Some of these storms may be strong from near KLVS to KSAF,
KABQ, KONM, and K4CR thru late this evening where heavy rainfall,
strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes are possible.
Areas of low stratus over northeast NM today may spread to more of
eastern NM overnight with a 40-70% probability of MVFR cigs east
of the central mt chain. Patchy fog may also develop overnight
across northeast and east-central NM but chances are currently

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion