Land North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

053
FXUS62 KILM 091048
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
648 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area starting later today as low pressure
develops and moves along the Southeast Coast. Improvement
is expected early next week as high pressure builds in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surge of northeast winds behind a cold front is making its way
through the eastern Carolinas early this morning. Before sunrise the
front should be south of the Santee River and wind gusts over land
should reach 20 knots (25 mph) as low and mid level clouds are
scoured out by a modified Canadian airmass arriving in the lowest
10kft of the atmosphere, pushed south by 1035 mb high pressure just
north of the the Great Lakes. Look for dewpoints to fall into the
very comfortable 40s inland and 50s near the coast, with high temps
only making it to 72-75, about 5 degrees below normal.
In the upper levels a shortwave over western TN should dig
southeastward across GA tonight. With the cold front stalling near
the GA coast, upper divergence ahead of the shortwave will lead to
surface low pressure developing along the front. 700 mb flow may
start to turn easterly along the SC coast as a shield of isentropic
lift begins to organize north of the developing surface low late
tonight, but the bulk of any potential rainfall will likely hold off
until later in the week. Lows should fall into the 53-57 range
inland and 58-61 near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All eyes will be on a storm system slowly moving south
to north along a baroclinic zone offshore through the period. The
latest guidance doesn`t offer up much more in the way of certainty
so still a somewhat lower confidence forecast. There is a hint of
consistency in GFS solutions as a strongly forced (isentropic lift
combined with mid level frontogenesis) band moving across Saturday.
Overall pops have been incrementally increased as have QPF amounts
along coastal areas. Temperature forecast has trended more
reasonable mainly with lows now dropping into the lower to even
middle 60s thus decreasing the diurnal range which should be the
case considering the windy and moisture laden conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Impacts from the coastal system will be on the decline
Sunday with mid level ridging poised to build into the area slowly
through next week. Temperatures will hover at or just above
climatology as well with dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level dry air has punched in on breezy northeast winds
behind the early morning cold front. Broken ceilings 4000-6000
feet AGL along the South Carolina coast should scatter out late
this morning or this afternoon. The biggest weather impact will
be from breezy northeast surface winds gusting to 25 knots.
Gusts should die away at sunset, but low pressure developing
off the GA coast late tonight could lead to rising wind speeds,
especially near the coast.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A Nor`easter moving slowly up the coast Friday
through Saturday could lead to MVFR to local IFR conditions in
ceilings and rain (reduced visibility) for KILM, KCRE, and KMYR. The
probability of restrictions developing inland at KFLO and KLBT is
lower. Gusty north to northeast surface winds will continue and
could exceed 30 knots at times Friday morning, then again
Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
A surge of northeasterly winds is moving down the
coast early this morning behind a cold front. Winds in the 20-25
knots range should already be blowing at sunrise and will continue
through the day, strongest across the more-exposed waters east of
Cape Fear and east of Winyah Bay.
Low pressure is expected to develop along the stalled front off the
GA coast tonight. Falling pressures to our south and rising
pressures associated with 1035 mb Canadian high pressure moving
across New England will push our sustained winds into the 30-35 knot
range by early this evening with gusts near 40 knots expected at
times. The previously issued Gale Warning will remain in effect for
this period of very rough marine weather conditions. Seas should
build to 5-7 feet by late this afternoon, then to 6-8 feet tonight.
Friday through Monday...
Gale warning will remain in place Friday as conditions ramp up for
the expected coastal system. Still some uncertainly with regards to
forecast tracks and or intensity however. The ending time may need
to be pushed back considerably in time as well as recent solutions
show a slower trend/departure of the system. Small craft advisory
conditions will be needed once the system does depart. Next week
offers slow improvement. Wind speeds with the gale warning are 30-35
knots with higher gusts with significant seas of 4-10 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full moon
will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high tide, and
possibly the evening high tides as well (now the smaller of the
two), across most of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River
including downtown Wilmington, through the weekend.
Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for New Hanover
County beaches Thu, likely continuing and expanding along the
coast through the weekend due to strengthening ENE swell and a
developing low pressure system off the coast.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ106>108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion