Landrum, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

951
FXUS62 KGSP 292354
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
754 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will affect the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia into Tuesday as a frontal
boundary weakens. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Imelda will drift north
of the Bahamas. The system is expected to slow down and turn east
and away from the Florida coast by late Tuesday. The system will
then move further out over the Atlantic as broad high pressure
builds over our region from the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday: Ragged and (mostly) weak shower bands will
continue across mainly the northern half of the forecast area
through the evening. Current mesoanalysis shows a nice 850mb-700mb
Atlantic Fetch over the region in accordance with the shower
activity. Surface high parked over the Lower Great Lakes region
support a wedge-like configuration over the area, bringing in stable
northeasterly flow. Aloft, the trough axis to our west supports a
nice jet streak on the leeside, which is helping to stream mid-to
upper-level clouds in association with Tropical Storm Imelda, which
is currently located over the Bahamas and is helping to filter in
better moisture as the coastal front retrogrades towards the area.
With multiple features assisting to provide good forcing, expect for
scattered shower activity to linger through the early part of the
overnight period. Very stable airmass suggests that rainfall rates
remain on the lighter side, which should keep most of the area from
receiving a complete wash out. With extensive cloud cover and
elevated rain chances, expect overnight lows to run ~5 degrees below
normal.
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to start making a right
turn further out to sea as it induces the Fujiwhara effect with
Hurricane Humberto as it slides just west of Bermuda and begins
to track northeast on Tuesday. Deeper low-level subsidence begins
to cutoff the Atlantic Fetch as a result, while overall forcing
begins to weaken as well. With that being said, shower coverage will
begin to dwindle during the day Tuesday, but with the trough axis
still hovering over the area, additional shower and thunderstorms
activity can`t be ruled out, mainly across the mountains and
foothills. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be dependent on how
quick cloud cover can scatter out, but nothing suggests that this
process will occur quickly, especially in the western Piedmont of
North Carolina where the better available low-level moisture will
be located. Expect temperatures to remain 5 to almost 10 degrees
below normal, with the exception of the Upper Savannah and Little
TN Valley where better insolation could lead to warmer temperatures
compared to the rest of the CWFA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday: Dry and cool high pressure slides south
out of Canada into the Northeastern states and down the Eastern
Seaboard thru Thursday. The dry NELY flow should cut off PoPs across
the forecast area early Tuesday evening, with clearing skies and
mountain valley fog developing by daybreak Wednesday. Quiet weather
will then dominate, with temps slightly above normal Wednesday,
then cooling to slightly below normal Thursday. Marginally breezy
NE winds expected across the Piedmont both days.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement
on an upper ridge persisting across the eastern CONUS thru the
medium range, with the center of sfc high pressure settling over
the Mid-Atlantic. Dry conditions are likely to continue into the
upcoming weekend, but with easterly flow beginning to pick up
a little moisture, could see increasing clouds and slight rain
chances late in the weekend or early next week. The latest NBM
keeps sub-20% PoPs thru Sunday night. Temps will start out a little
chilly in the mountains Friday morning, with lows in the 40s,
while Piedmont may see lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. From
there, temps will begin a slow warming trend from a few deg below
normal to around normal by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly light-to-moderate showers continue
to move across the Terminal Forecast Area this evening, while cigs
are steadily lowering within the very moist regime. VFR/MVFR cigs
are holding out at KAND/KAVL, while IFR and low MVFR conditions
are observed elsewhere. At least tempo IFR cigs are expected at
all sites by the end of the evening, while periods of IFR/low MVFR
visby will continue in periods of rainfall. Showers are expected
to steadily taper off across much of the area by the early part
of the overnight, but low cigs will persist through at least
Tue morning. While visby is expected to improve a bit with rain
tapering off, reduced visby (mainly MVFR) will remain possible
in BR through much of the morning. There are some indications
in the latest guidance that another round of showers may move
into the area in the late morning/early afternoon time frame,
but this is very uncertain at this point. Nevertheless, Prob30s
for -SHRA and/or VCSH appear warranted at most sites during this
time frame. Winds will remain NE at around 10 kts at most sites
through the period, with some occasional gusts in the 15-20 kts
range possible, especially Tue afternoon.
Outlook: Lingering restrictions are possible Tuesday night, but
drier air is expected from Wednesday onward. VFR conditions will
prevail, with the exception of early morning fog and low stratus
in the mountain valleys each day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion