Latex, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

395
FXUS64 KSHV 200442
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend,
   accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
- Showers and storms will return Sunday afternoon to portions of
   the Four State Region.
- The work week ahead looks to be more unsettled, with daily chances
   for showers and storms and more mild temperatures across
   northern zones.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The ArkLaTex looks on track to actually remain precipitation free
for the course of the next day and a half. Ultimately, the upper
level synoptic pattern is not locking this quiet set up in for the
long term. We`ll find ourselves in the hiatus between systems, if
you will. Tonight, lows will drop into the middle 60s north to upper
60s and lower 70s south, while areas of patchy fog develop again
across the region, particularly north of the I-20 corridor.
Behind Friday`s boundary, drier air will put a short-lived dent in
the humidity, but the late summer afternoon will still rebound
solidly into the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies. A very similar night will follow, with lows in the 60s
and 70s, but more isolated patchy fog.
As far as the long range forecast models go, agreement remains that
we will see an upper level regime change late in the weekend and
continuing into next week. While ridging builds over the Four
Corners region, troughing looks to amplify over the Great Plains.
The question which remains is exactly how deep the trough will dig
and how far south the steering mechanisms will guide it. The GFS
depicts a transition from pseudo-zonal to northwest flow, along
which a deepening closed low will swing by the middle of the week,
broadening in reach as it slowly drifts along the middle Mississippi
valley by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF suggests a
similar start to the week, and the development of a similar midweek
trough, but largely keeps this feature to the north of I-40, pushing
zonal flow over the ArkLaTex.
What this means for the ArkLaTex is an unsettled pattern for the
course of the week ahead. Chances for showers and storms look to
return to western zones of the Four State Region by Sunday
afternoon, followed by a wave of rainfall chances overnight into
Monday. Yet another wave looks to move in going into Tuesday,
initiating a continuous stretch of near-areawide rainfall chances
through Thursday. As the pattern remains unsettled, daily
rainfall chances will continue to close out this long term forecast
period, with highs ranging from the 80s north to 90s south, possibly
dropping into the 80s altogether by the middle of the week, with
lows in the 60s and 70s throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Convection has ended for the evening with a massive outflow
boundary noted on radar south of the I-20 Corridor. With daytime
heating just about complete, not expecting much if any additional
convection along this outflow boundary through the remainder of
the evening. All that is left over is some spotty cu to go along
with AC and Cirrus debris from earlier convection. Progs are
insistent on additional high cirrus expected to infiltrate our
airspace from the west during this TAF period. Otherwise, should
see a cu field develop across our airspace once again by late
morning into the afternoon. While isolated, diurnally driven
convection will certainly be possible on Saturday, chances do not
warrant a mention in this 24 hour TAF package. Did insert TEMPO
MVFR VSBYs at the ELD/MLU and LFK terminals near sunrise tomorrow
morning, otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the next
24 hours.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  95  69  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  88  65  91  66 /  40   0  10   0
TXK  91  69  95  70 /  40   0   0   0
ELD  90  66  94  67 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  89  70  91  69 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  90  67  93  69 /  30   0   0   0
LFK  94  68  93  69 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion