Laurel Lake Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS64 KLCH 141720
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture
  returning throughout Thursday as onshore flow becomes
  reestablished
- The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday as an upper
  trough and cold front approach from the west. For now, rain
  chances remain rather low, and will largely depend on moisture
  return through the late week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Ridging remains in place overhead along with high pressure at the
surface. Conditions will remain dry and warm for most of the week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will remain light for
the majority of the week as the high is advected to our northeast.
Through Thursday, the forecast will be a persistence forecast
with no rain and clear skies.
Similar to daytime highs being several degrees higher than normal,
overnight lows are also running about 5 degrees above normal for
this time of the year. This pattern will remain in place until
Friday when the ridging will finally be pushed out of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The immediate change in our weather pattern will be the increase
in moisture as the high pressure to our east will cause our winds
to become southerly. This moist air mass will cause our PoPs to
increase on Friday, and we could see typical air mass
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Aloft, a shortwave trough will move across the central plains
with its associated cold front moving across the region Saturday
and Sunday. This will be the best chance for rain in the forecast
with the possibility of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The SPC has
highlighted an area to our north for the possibility of severe
weather on Saturday. Depending on the evolution of the wave, we
could see that severe threat shift south. Either way, it will be
important to continue to monitor the forecast for the next several
days.
After the front, more high pressure will move in, but temperatures
will moderate with highs only in the mid-80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions will continue with light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Offshore winds will continue with little change in the forecast
for the rest of the week. On Friday, winds will become onshore and
increase to 15 knots. Through the week, waves will remain below 4
feet. Rain chances will return on Friday with a cold front
expected on either Saturday or Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across
the region. Currently, multiple Parishes have burn bans in place
across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas. Conditions
will start to improve on Friday as south winds will bring in more
moisture. Rain chances will increase this weekend with the passage
of a cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  88  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  87  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  88  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion