Laurium, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

998
FXUS63 KMQT 071102
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
702 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty rain showers are possible this morning over the NW wind
  lake effect belts before dry conditions return this afternoon.
- Dry weather persists through Monday before a warm front brings
  showers and thunderstorms late into Tuesday.
- A warming trend is set for this week with daytime high temps
  climbing back into the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows
  averaging near 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Early morning GOES satellite imagery and RAP Mesa reveals a deep
upper level trough axis skirting just east of Upper Michigan across
Lake Huron. On the western flank of this trough axis, a brief
reinforcement of chilly northwest mid-level flow characterized by
roughly +1 to -2C 850mb temps is producing enough lake induced
instability to fire off spotty lake effect showers/ so far tonight,
coverage has been rather unimpressive, with scattered showers mainly
confined to the Keweenaw and east-central UP. Increasing stability
over land has managed to kill off precipitation before it can reach
further inland. Heading into day break, expecting spotty scattered
lake effect rain showers to become more confined to the east half as
a building ridge, sfc high pressure, and drier air aloft work
eastward into the northern Great Lakes region. Have carried low
chance PoPs for scattered lake effect showers east of Munising
through the morning before completely falling off by Noon EDT.
Otherwise, a pleasant Sunday is expected with decreasing cloud cover
and temps warming into the 50s to near 60. Tonight, continued quiet
weather will allow temps to fall just below 40 interior, low to mid
40s lakeshores. Should we be able to fully decouple and mid to high
clouds don`t hinder efficient radiational cooling, frost is possible
interior, though at this time confidence is rather low.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Dry weather persists into Monday with ridging over the Rockies
supporting surface high pressure centered over the central
Mississippi valley. However, this begins to break down late in the
day as mid-level troughing develops across the central Plains and a
secondary shortwave dives southeast out of Sask/Manitoba. Increasing
isentropic ascent ahead of a warm front will present our next
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms late Monday through
Tuesday. The latest NBM guidance suggests healthy rainfall amounts
upwards of 0.5" area wide between 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday, with
the 75th to 90th percentile of 24hr QPF highlighting portions of the
central UP receiving near an inch, which may be possible where
elevated thunderstorms persist. Additionally, a stout S to SW
oriented 30-40kt LLJ moves overhead late Monday into Tuesday,
pointing towards gusty conditions for the typical downsloping
locations of the central and eastern UP, as well as hazardous marine
weather in northern Lake Michigan and eastern Lake Superior.
Ensemble probability for Gales have trended higher over the past 24
hours, currently suggesting a 20-40% chance for 35 kt gusts in the
aforementioned areas Tuesday morning and afternoon. This may be
underdone as previous WAA high wind events have overachieved along
the eastern shores of Lake Superior and off of the Keweenaw
Peninsula.
By midweek, deepening midlevel low pressure will be spinning over
the Pacific Northwest and Quebec, with ridging recovering atop the
central CONUS. This will keep the U.P under a northwest to westerly
upper level flow through the latter half of the week while surface
high pressure expands over the region, favoring a return to mainly
dry weather. Warming temperatures return, peaking in the 60s to low
70s Monday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period today, although some
MVFR cigs could be seen for an hour or two at IWD (and possibly CMX
too) this morning. Expect northwest winds to die down by tonight as
the top of a high pressure ridge moves overhead by the evening
hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
While ridging pushes in today, expect northwesterly winds up to
around 20 knots to continue over the central lake until this
afternoon, when the top of the ridge begins to move into Lake
Superior. As this happens though, we could see some winds from the
west-southwest gust up to around 20 knots late this afternoon into
early this evening between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula,
before winds dwindle down to 20 knots or less tonight. Expect light
winds of 20 knots or less to remain over the lake until Monday
evening, when a shortwave low moving through the lake brings
southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots back over the eastern lake ahead
of its arrival; a few gusts up to 30 knots cannot be ruled out at
this time, and given the strong LLJ overhead (up to 45 knots in some
models), there is a 30% chance that the southern shoreline over the
eastern lake could see a gale-force gust or two up to 35 knots. In
addition to the gustier conditions, some showers and storms
associated with the shortwave low look to move over Lake Superior
late Monday through Tuesday; no severe weather is expected as storms
look to remain elevated. Once the shortwave low passes Tuesday
morning, expect the winds to die-down to 20 knots or less again by
the afternoon hours, with winds remain light to the end of the work-
week as high pressure ridging slowly makes its way through the Upper
Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion