Lavaca, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

836
FXUS64 KTSA 301631
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
An upper level low passing across the area will contribute to
partly to mostly cloudy conditions through this evening. Most of
the moisture is centered at or above 600 hPa, with much drier air
below that, so areas of virga showers or sprinkles are possible,
but measurable rain at the surface is unlikely. High temperatures
will peak in the low to mid 80s. Skies will clear out this
evening allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures overnight,
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Upper level ridging rebuilds across the area Wednesday,
strengthening into Friday. This will allow for temperatures to
rebound slightly. A few areas may reach 90 F in eastern Oklahoma
Thursday to Friday, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. A transient and
weak upper level wave will brush the area Thursday, with perhaps a
couple of afternoon showers in the higher terrain of northwest
Arkansas, but otherwise dry conditions are anticipated.
Upper level ridging retreats slightly over the weekend as a system
impinges on the area from the southwest. But as it never really gets
very close, dry conditions will most likely persist. If models
trended closer with the system, we could introduce a slight chance
of showers across eastern OK, but for now this seems unlikely. Lower
level thermal profiles only cool slightly, so temperatures may drop
a couple of degrees, but will remain well above normal for this time
of year.
Towards the end of the forecast period ensemble guidance diverges. A
large subset of guidance shows a continuation of the current regime.
A smaller subset allows a trough to finally push into the area
bringing cooler conditions as well as a chance of rain showers.
Mostly leaned towards the warmer solution, but at least hinted at
the potential pattern shift towards day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Patchy fog may persist at KFYV and KROG through the next hour or
two, dissipating by or before 15z. Otherwise, VFR expected to
prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period, with SCT-BKN
mid/upper level clouds. Winds stay light out of the
east/southeast today. Patchy fog may develop again at KFYV and
KROG late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  88  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   59  88  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   58  84  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   60  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion