Lebo, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS61 KCTP 260534
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
134 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Drying out and not as humid on Friday
* Above average temperatures forecast through the end of
  September
* Considerable uncertainty in potential rainfall/tropical
  moisture next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Steady rainfall along a cold front has exited east of the area
this evening, with scattered clouds and some isolated showers
across the region. A weak cold front will move to the east of
the CWA in the middle of the night, and some drying is expected.
Little to no precip is expected past midnight. Clouds and a
light wrly wind could thwart fog formation, so we haven`t
included mentions for tonight at this point. Temps get into the
50s for the NW half of the CWA, but stick in the m60s in
Lancaster/Harrisburg/York.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The westerly flow across LE and passage of the upper trough
should cause isolated SHRA over far nrn PA on Friday. However,
most of the CWA will be dry with lower dewpoints/humidity and
subsidence. GFS has a little more vigorous upper trough as it
pushes thru Central PA, and generates a few aftn SHRA. But, most
guidance is dry keeping vertical depth of convection shorter.
Temps will be similar to Thursday despite weak cold advection.
Fri night will hold a better chance for fog - if it stays clear
after an initial period of clearing early in the night. Guidance
does deepen an upper low over the TN valley off the remnants of
the upper trough that will have passed thru PA. That could draw
moisture/clouds into the state from the south later Friday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Newest wrinkle to the forecast for the weekend is that the upper
low lingers to our west for a little while and could draw
enough moisture north into southern PA to cause a few -SHRA or
patches of -RA on Sat and Sunday. PoPs have increased slightly
from past runs, but we`ve confined them to locations S of I-80
for the time being. Some uncertainty exists in regard to the
possibility of tropical moisture being drawn into the state as a
complicated interaction is expected between the tropical
cyclone(s) off the coast and our old upper low. At this point,
the cyclone(s) themselves are not expected to cause any direct
impacts to Central PA. But, due to the uncertainty with the
extent and position of any tropical moisture plume, very low
PoPs linger into Tuesday across the far S. The forecast then
gets dry for the middle of next week (high confidence) as
sprawling high pressure drops down from Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog has already begun to become more widespread than originally
anticipated across the eastern airfields, and confidence is
high in IPT and LNS seeing LIFR conditions throughout the night
with fog having already settled into those sites. Elsewhere fog
and low ceilings will continue to degrade conditions throughout
the remainder of tonight with widespread IFR anticipated by 09Z
at most sites. There remains a roughly 30% chance that AOO and
UNV will remain VFR through the night, but the most likely
scenario is some reductions of flight categories occurring at
all TAF sites.
Improving conditions to widespread VFR by late Friday morning,
as slightly drier air works into the area. There is some signal
that a broken to scattered deck of MVFR clouds could linger at
BFD, JST, IPT, and UNV into the early afternoon, but gradual
improvement is expected. A few isolated showers could affect
those same airfields on Friday, but confidence and expected
duration remain low enough to preclude any mention in the TAFs.
Outlook...
Fri...Low cigs early trending VFR by Friday afternoon.
Decreasing odds for rain.
Sat-Tues...Low confidence in sub-VFR cigs/rain across the
southern/eastern portions of the airspace. Mainly VFR across the
Central and Northern 2/3rds of PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ037-041-
042-046-051>053-058-059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bowen

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion