Lee Cemetery, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS64 KLIX 280420
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for much of the period with warm afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures each day.
- Rain chances slightly increase toward the middle or end of
   next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The mid and upper level flow will start to weaken today as the
broad scale trough begins to move east of the area allowing for a
very modest UL Ridge to set up over the Sabine River. Today will
be a touch warmer than Saturday with highs likely to climb into
the lower 90s across the CWFA. Otherwise, the main story or
forecast challenge again will be with the strong surface heating,
how much dry air will mix to the surface. With the mixing there is
often lower dewpoints than guidance suggests during the
afternoon. Guidance handled this correctly on Saturday, but could
struggle a bit today with stronger warming at the surface.
Going into the new workweek, the upper ridge will continue to
reside in rather close proximity. This will likely keep our region
dry through the short term period. The higher heights and
thicknesses will also continue to keep our afternoon temperatures
above average. Overnight temperatures should continue to be
comfortable. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Going into the long term an overall pattern shift will start to
take place. TD9 will continue to parallel the US Coast and
eventually eject eastward away from the US Coast as an H5 trough
begins to dig across the southeast US. The upper level pattern
will transition Wednesday and going into the rest of the workweek.
A fairly robust upper level low develops over the Deep South and
spreads west into next weekend. With ridging over the Cornbelt, a
Rex Block will eventually develop. A surface front is forecast to
move through the region mid to late week as TD9 pushes east.
Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
The front is forecast to stall right along the coast. As the upper
level low settles into the region this pattern is usually
supportive of storms containing at least some small hail.
Otherwise, temperatures will be held down below average given the
lower heights as well as rain/clouds around. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle. Surface winds will
remain light...generally 10 knots or less and mostly northerly or
variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Offshore flow will continue through the weekend but winds will
remain on the lighter side for the most part. Winds will temporarily
increase the next two nights over MS Sound and along the waters just
off the SELA coast, mainly after midnight and through mid morning
before slacking back off during the day. This northerly flow is
expected to continue through much of the forecast. Convection
chances are low but not zero starting early to midweek next week. A
cold front will move into our region by Thursday increasing winds
and seas. Cautionary headlines will likely be required Thursday
through the end of the forecast period. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  61  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  88  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  88  63  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  89  72  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  89  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  89  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion