Lefors, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS64 KAMA 061753
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Sunday night. A
  few storms on Sunday night might be strong with hail and
  lightning being the primary hazards.
- Warming temperatures are expected during the work week with
  highs increasing back to near average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows persistent cloud
cover over the region. Clouds are starting to slowly clear out
however, with the southeast and portions of the central Panhandles
having more partly cloudy skies instead of mostly cloudy
conditions. Temperatures at the time of this writing range from
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs for this afternoon are still
forecast to reach the lower 70s, but a few areas that are already
clearing out from the clouds may reach the mid 70s. A weak
shortwave trough may move over the southern Texas Panhandle this
evening through tonight. This feature has a very low chance at
developing isolated showers and storms overnight. A few global
models generate rain with this scenario, but am very hesitant that
showers or storms will make it this far east tonight as none of
the latest CAMs generate any rain for the Panhandles. NBM PoPs
seem way too high so have lowered them for tonight and
consideration was given to completely removing any rain mentions,
but have kept in around 15-20 percent chances for now.
H500 high pressure will begin to build over the central US on
Sunday. Less cloud cover is forecast for tomorrow so high
temperatures should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s aided by
increasing H850 temperatures up to the low 20s Celsius. A slightly
stronger disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft is
expected to move over the higher terrain of NM/CO towards the
Panhandles Sunday afternoon into the evening. Model soundings
indicate MLCAPE profiles of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with bulk
shear of around 30-35 kts. Given those parameters and H500
temperatures around -7 to -10 Celsius, hail will be possible with
any robust updrafts. In fact, cannot completely rule out
marginally severe hail if the higher CAPE/shear values pan out.
The northwest is currently not outlooked for any severe storm
potential, but the potential is there if everything lines up
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Showers and isolated storms may
persist throughout the night leading into Monday morning.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Ridging looks to set up across the central US with high pressure
over Texas through this upcoming work week. Further west, a trough
is forecast to dig south towards the Desert Southwest by mid to late
week. For Monday, there may be some ongoing showers or storms across
the central or east to start the day as moisture remains over the
region and lift provided by a shortwave may still be in place over
the CWA. With the ridging pattern already starting to set up on
Monday, temperatures will warm up quickly compared to this weekend
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Similar temperatures are
expected each day this work week as the ridge remains over the
Southern Plains each day. As of now, the 06/13z NBM keeps the
Panhandles dry beyond Monday, with rain chances around 10 percent or
less. Even so, cannot completely rule out afternoon/evening
showers or storms if shortwaves can move over the region and
sufficient mid level moisture is in place. Forecast guidance
suggests that the trough to the west will begin to lift towards
over the Rockies towards the Northern Plains early next weekend.
The persistent ridge looks to remain in place however so near
average high temperatures are likely to continue going into next
weekend.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
MVFR ceilings are forecast for a few more hours at the terminals.
Low clouds will clear out afterwards and a return to VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of this TAF cycle.
Mist/patchy fog and/or scattered low clouds may develop near
sunrise tomorrow but confidence is not high enough for aviation
impacts at this time. Winds will mainly remain out of the south to
southeast with maximum sustained winds around 10-15 kts.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion