Leland, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

141
FXUS63 KAPX 110640
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
240 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-High pressure will continue beautiful early fall weather today. Fog
chances return tonight.
-Light scattered precipitation returns Friday night into Saturday
morning with a few chances of embedded thunderstorms.
-Additional quiet and dry weather continues through midweek next
week with highs well above average for mid September.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Mid level heights begin to rise across the
Northwoods today with a shortwave ridging pattern building across
the midwest through the entire short term period. Surface high
pressure will continue to support mainly clear skies and quiet
weather today and tonight.
Forecast Details...
Today... Another beautiful fall day is expected as subsidence aloft
will keep conditions sunny and dry. Temperatures continue to climb
above normal for September as previously mentioned ridging builds
warm H8 temps across the middle of the CONUS. Diurnal and adiabatic
heating processes will increase daytime highs into the mid/upper
70s. Medium probabilities of a few localized areas near Manistee and
Wexford counties observing highs in the low 80s as light northeast
winds could potential deliver a slight downsloping effect boosting
temperatures.
Tonight...Mostly clear skies across northern lower will allow
temperatures to efficiently fall due to radiational cooling
processes. With dew point depressions rapidly decreasing, inland fog
is expected tonight mainly impacting northern lower. Some overnight
lingering cloud cover across eastern upper along with areas near
Lake Huron will have lesser probs of formation but remains
possible as overnight lows drop to the upper 40s and low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Friday and Saturday... Shortwave ridge building across the central
US begins to move eastward this weekend with its axis positioning
over the Midwest. Shortwave troughing over Hudson Bay will create a
somewhat baroclinic zone over the Great Lakes region combined with
some low level moisture and instability to keep chances of showers
and even a few storms in the forecast. Timing of precipitation will
likely be Friday night into Saturday morning. Dynamics are not ideal
with this set up; leading to overall light and uneven QPF coverage
across the CWA. A few convective cells could deliver locally higher
amounts but highest probabilities of rainfall remain between a
general trace to a tenth of an inch.
Sunday through Wednesday Outlook.... Midlevel ridging regime builds
across the Great Lakes region this Sunday through the remainder of
the forecast period... continuing the pattern of surface high
pressure and quiet weather. Biggest weather feature that will be
noticed by the general public with be the stretch of warm weather
thanks to 850mb temperatures building into the general 15-18 degree
range. Adiabatic heating processes will likely result in a stretch
of daytime highs near 80 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Guidance
is hinting at some low probabilities of precipitation due to
embedded shortwaves/height disturbances likely to deliver convection
to the plains region. At this time no precip is expected, but we
will continue to monitor these potential sources of convection and
how they evolve with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Subtle boundary draped across area attm with light north/northeast
flow likely to keep low clouds/fog trapped near the surface through
the night. Expect prevailing LIFR cigs/visbys at most TAF sites
through 13-15z, with cigs rising to IFR/MVFR toward 18z. Less
confident in fog at CIU, where ongoing VFR/MVFR cigs could preclude
fog development, but do have tempo in there prior to daybreak to
suggest fog is possible. Light winds/possible lake breezes during
the afternoon, with cigs around 2kft or so; not impossible a
nuisance cloud deck gets stuck overhead that doesn`t mix out till
closer to 0z. Current signals for fog/low stratus again after 0z Fri
and have hinted at this in TAFs. Rogue shower possible, esp at CIU,
but have left this out of TAFs attm.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion