Lenore Lake, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

518
FXUS66 KOTX 261750
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy southwest winds today with gusts 15 to 20 mph mainly
  Northeastern WA and North Idaho.
- Areas of haze and smoke impacting air quality across the
  region.
- Unsettled weather pattern next week with chances for showers.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly mornings Friday and Saturday before temperatures see a
bump up above normal over the weekend. Cooler temperatures and
chances for showers for the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday-Sunday: The upper-level trough which ushered the cold front
through the region will slide eastward and flat ridging will
set up over the Inland NW. This transition will be occurring
throughout the day today but we are continuing to observe gusty
winds northwest winds early this morning over the ridgetops of
the Central Cascades and benches around Entiat and Wenatchee
where midnight gusts have been between 30-40 mph. These stronger
wind speeds are currently at their peak and will begin to come
down as we go into Friday morning and the flow begins to buckle
from northwest back to the west aloft. This will also direct
stronger pressure falls over Central Canada and result in a
transition back to west to southwest winds for the region.
Speeds will be lower than those experienced on Thursday but
still in the breezy category with gusts of 15-20 mph common
across the Basin, North Idaho, and into portions of Northeastern
WA. Lighter winds will return to the East Slopes of the
Cascades. Another deep trough will approach from the Gulf of AK
tonight into Saturday with winds backing further to more of a
south/southeast direction and speeds around 10 mph or less. A
band of clouds will waver around the Cascades and Western WA at
times but conditions will remain dry. Temperatures will be
cooler today (FRI) with highs in the 60s-70s then shift gears
for the weekend warming into the 70-80s Saturday and 80s Sunday.
Air quality will remain a concern across the region, especially
near the active fires in Central WA. HRRR suggest the shift
toward SW transport winds will allow smoke from the Cascade
fires to lift back north into the Upper Basin and possibly the
northern mountain valleys of NE WA and N ID on Friday evening.
Monday-Thursday: There is good agreement amongst the ensemble
clusters of the aforementioned deep trough to park along the WA
Coast and sling several impulses of energy and moisture into
the PacNW. This leads to increasing confidence for unsettled
weather conditions over a multi-day period and potential for
much needed moisture for some areas. The initial wave on Monday-
Monday night looks to be light and comes with a low probability
for wetting rains (10-35% chance). However, probabilities
increase toward 30-60% for the next 24 hours from Tuesday into
Wednesday then decrease back into the 10-40% chance for
Wednesday into Thursday. We have played this game before this
summer and it is conceivable that some areas miss out on the
beneficial rains given the banding, convective nature and it is
likely that some areas come out of this unsettled period with
over half an inch of rainfall and other less than a tenth. Folks
heading into the backcountry are urged to pack appropriate gear
for cool and wet. Snow levels at times will dip as low as 7000
feet along the Cascade Crest with a steady decline in
temperatures each day. Monday will bring the best potential for
gusty winds with direction looking to come from more of a
southerly direction. The air mass cools roughly 8C from Sunday
afternoon to Monday afternoon supporting the notion for wind
gusts of at least 20 mph.
Friday into next weekend: Roughly 90% of the ensembles indicate
a brief drying trend by late week into the early weekend though
many variations with details and amplitude of the ridge and
hints of showers returning by the end of the weekend. Needless
to say, not a lot of confidence in details within this period
after a brief drying Friday. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Winds have shifted generally to the south and
southwest across the Inland Northwest. Gusts up to 20 mph are
anticipated for much of Northeastern WA and North Idaho between
19-00z. VFR conditions are forecast through the period except
for terminals impacted by smoke.
Fires in the Cascades are very active and will continue to
produce heavy smoke downstream. As of 18Z, the smoke plumes
from Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain are direction into KMWH
into KPUW with visibilities ranging between 4-6SM. This
afternoon as transport winds shift from northwest to southwest,
this will likely bring increased smoke into Wenatchee and
Chelan. Smoke could also again increase around KGEG/KSFF/KCOE in
the evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Smoke models show the smoke plume that stretches from the
Cascades into southeast Washington and the southern Idaho
Panhandle gradually shifting north through the afternoon. This
will primarily impact KEAT over the next couple of hours with
moderate confidence in visibility degrading to 4SM or less
through the evening. Visibilities down to 5-6SM for KGEG/KSFF
will also be possible as the smoke drifts northward, but this
carries a low confidence.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        46  76  50  81  55  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  46  76  51  82  54  73 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Pullman        43  78  48  81  52  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Lewiston       49  82  55  85  60  76 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Colville       37  73  37  77  43  69 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Sandpoint      40  72  44  78  49  68 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Kellogg        48  78  56  81  57  69 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Moses Lake     46  77  46  79  53  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  40
Wenatchee      54  77  56  78  58  69 /   0   0   0   0  30  50
Omak           50  76  50  79  54  72 /  10   0   0   0  20  40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Sunday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion