Leroy New York Weather Forecast Discussion

385
FXUS61 KBUF 111747
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low will spiral across our region through
Monday night, producing rain showers at times for our region.
Surface high pressure will build towards our region Tuesday,
bringing fair weather, though a cold front Tuesday night may produce
a few spotty showers, but more noticeable, cooler temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs only in the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery displays a closed low sitting to the west of Lake
Ontario this afternoon with a large arc of clouds advancing
northward across our region ahead of this feature. A dry slot, just
to our west may bring a little sunshine along the Lake Erie
shoreline, while drier air lingering east of Lake Ontario will
maintain mostly sunny skies for the North Country.
Shower activity will begin to weaken this evening with the setting
of the sun, and the diminishing of lower level lapse rates. As a LLJ
increases Atlantic moisture tonight across the Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region, and the closed low now sitting overhead,
another area of scattered showers is expected to blossom overnight,
with this precipitation pushing westward, with its diminishing axis
of rain showers fading over western portions of WNY towards sunrise
Sunday morning.
Though this closed mid level low will remain near our region for
Sunday, moisture aloft will be fading, allowing for much of the day
to be rainfree. However, another prolonged stretch of easterly flow
will again replenish moisture aloft over our region bringing rain
showers back into our region for Sunday night.
Overall QPF is not expected to be much, with perhaps a half an inch
tonight through the end of the weekend for the Upper Genesee Valley
and Finger Lakes region, and a quarter to half an inch east of Lake
Ontario. Given the ongoing drought, all rain will be beneficial.
With Sunday a bit more sunny, and the cold air within the closed low
not as cool, afternoon highs Sunday should top out in the upper 60s
for the lower elevations, and low to mid 60s for higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will feature one more day with overcast conditions and
scattered rain showers as an easterly flow continues to advect
Atlantic moisture westward. Greatest chances for showers will be
to our east.
A large area of high pressure will follow this departing Atlantic
surface low, with the surface high bringing fair weather to our
region Tuesday. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward
across our region Tuesday night, possibly bringing a few rain
showers, but more noticeable will be the cooler airmass that follows.
Highs Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the 50s, while
overnight temperatures will drop back into the 30s, and inland mid to
upper 20s. This will again bring frost and freeze concerns to areas
where the growing season continues.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of surface high pressure will become squeezed over our
region to end the week, with a continued Atlantic low spiraling
south of Atlantic Canada, and another incoming shortwave trough
from the west. Chances for showers will increase if not Friday,
by Saturday with the weakening surface and lower level ridge of
high pressure and upstream trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A compact mid-level low pressure circulation centered over southern
Ontario as of 18z will slowly meander eastward and weaken over the
region through tonight, where it will then stall out through Sunday.
This will result in variable though predominantly VFR cigs spreading
eastward, though skies will occasionally become SCT. Cigs of 2500`-
4000` will likely persist from KJHW north to KIAG through the
remainder of the afternoon, lowest across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier. Lower MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible across
the Southern Tier tonight as additional moisture advects into the
region well out ahead of a strengthening coastal low.
Otherwise, several rounds of scattered showers are possible through
tonight. Brief localized MVFR vsbys are possible though VFR should
otherwise prevail. Due to the anticipated periodic and disorganized
nature, this activity will be primarily handled by PROB30 groups.
Some localized MVFR may linger Sunday morning, though VFR will
otherwise prevail through the day with diminished shower chances at
the TAF sites.
Outlook...
Sunday night...MVFR/IFR restrictions possible with increasing
chances for showers, mainly south and east of KBUF and KROC.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers, mainly east of KROC.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
With a weakening area of surface low pressure along the western
shoreline of Lake Ontario through this evening, easterly winds will
remain around 12-15 knots or less into the overnight hours.
As the surface low drops south of Lake Ontario later tonight and the
surface pressure gradient tightens along the entire portion of Lake
Ontario, these easterly winds will begin to increase.
These eastern winds may become elevated enough tomorrow through
Monday to potentially warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions on the
central and western portions of Lake Ontario. Winds gradually
lighten Monday night and then remain light into the day Tuesday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion