Lewis Pond, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS61 KAKQ 061947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger cold front crosses the area overnight into Sunday,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front late
this afternoon and evening. Cool high pressure builds north of
the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  into this evening. A few thunderstorms may be strong to
  severe.
GOES water vapor channels depict a deep trough over the Great
Lakes this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, there is a shortwave
trough lifting NE across the Cumberland Plateau/southern
Appalachians, and another shortwave trough lifting NE over New
England. At the surface, a cold front is pushing SE across
eastern PA and northern MD, with a pre-frontal trough from
central VA back to the SW into NW NC. Showers/tstms have
developed in vicinity of this trough, with a few stronger tstms
as well as this trough is on the southern periphery of a belt of
30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The
primary threat is damaging with gusts with isolated occurrences
of small to marginally severe hail. The NW half of the area
remains in a Marginal Risk for severe tstms, and this threat
should continue through 7-8PM, before diminishing later in the
evening. Brief heavy rain is expected in any tstms. However, the
flooding threat is quite limited and primarily just for urban
areas.
Scattered showers linger late this evening into the overnight
hours as the cold front pushes S through the local area.
However, the probability for thunder will diminish quickly from
00-03z (8-11PM). Cooler tonight with the wind shifting to N/NNE
behind the cold front. Low temperatures tonight range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s N, to the upper 60s/around 70F SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Autumnal weather returns to the region Sunday, with highs in
  the mid 70s and drier air moving back in.
The cold front should move offshore Sunday morning, with a
coastal trough forming as the boundary stalls immediately off
the NC coast. This feature may lead to the continuation of
scattered showers across NE NC and far SE VA through the day
Sunday. Behind the front, strong high pressure builds into the
area and ushers in the return of fall weather. Sunday will
likely be the coolest day with lingering overcast conditions and
high temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s from the
Piedmont across central VA to the Eastern Shore. Meanwhile, the
far SE will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Gradual
clearing Sunday night from NW to SE. Lows in the NW will be in
the low 50s while the lows in the SE will be in the mid 60s
thanks to the persistent cloud cover. Drying out further Monday
as that coastal trough slides E. However, cloud cover will
remain near the coast. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s.
Lows Monday night range from the upper 40s in the far NW to the
mid 60s in the far SE. A wave of low pressure may begin to
develop Tuesday off the Carolina coast Tuesday. This could push
some showers in to far SE VA and NE NC. Highs Tuesday will
mainly be in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Below average temperatures persist during the middle to later
  portion of next week.
High pressure slides by to the N of the local area and into New
England through the midweek period. Meanwhile, the
strengthening coastal trough/surface low retrogrades back toward
the coastline, setting up a CAD situation. This results in
mostly cloudy to overcast conditions, gusty onshore/NE winds,
and chances for light rain in the E. High temperatures Wednesday
will be in the mid 70s after morning lows ranging from the mid
50s NW to upper 60s SE. The coastal trough should finally get
shunted farther offshore Thursday, leading to pleasant/improving
conditions with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s, after morning
lows in the mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. A dry cold front then
slides across the area by late-week with another area of high
pressure building across New England. Forecast highs for Friday
are in the upper 70s/around 80, with mid 70s by Saturday. Lows
Friday and Saturday mornings are mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...
A cold front is approaching from the NW as of 18z. A lee-side
trough is located over central VA as well, and CU and sct
showers/tstms are developing in vicinity of this trough. VFR
conditions prevail with a SSW wind of 8-12kt with occasional
gusts up to 20kt. A shower/tstm may impact RIC from 18-20z, but
the probability increases after 20z. Probabilities for
showers/tstms increase at SBY from 20-22z, and PHF from 22-00z.
ORF has a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms later this evening, and
ECG is generally 20% or less. Any showers/tstms have the
potential to produce brief strong wind gusts, primarily prior to
00z. The cold front pushes through the region later this
evening into the early overnight hours. The wind shifts from
southerly to northerly behind the front. There is a potential
for MVFR cigs behind the front and brief IFR as well. Scattered
showers linger overnight. High pressure builds N of the region
Sunday with the cold front settling off the NC coast. MVFR cigs
gradually lift to VFR at most sites by Sunday aftn, but
potentially remain MVFR at ORF and ECG. A N to NNE Sunday will
generally be 5-10kt inland and 10-15kt along the coast.
High pressure remains centered N of the region much of next
week with a front stalled offshore. A wave of low pressure along
the boundary may bring some lower cigs and a chc of showers
across SE VA and NE NC Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly dry and VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued in the Chesapeake Bay
  for elevated northerly winds late tonight into Sunday.
- A more prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is
  expected Monday-Wednesday for the lower Bay/lower James,
  coastal waters, and Currituck sound as strong high pressure
  becomes centered NE of the region, with a trough offshore.
A cold front is approaching the waters this afternoon, with the
latest surface analysis placing it across the Piedmont region
of VA. Southerly winds have increased to 10-15 kt ahead of the
front on the ocean and in the Chesapeake Bay. Some readings are
approaching 15-20 kt at the elevated sites in the bay.
Regardless, these winds are falling just shy of SCA criteria, so
will hold off on any headlines for the southerly wind episode
today. Showers and storms could also cross the waters later this
afternoon and evening; the stronger storms may necessitate
Special Marine Warnings due to 34+ kt wind gusts.
The cold front drops south through the waters tonight, bringing
a northerly surge of stronger wind. The current forecast has N
winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after 4 AM
Sunday morning. With the cooler airmass moving over the warm
Chesapeake Bay waters, would not be surprised if winds over-
perform the forecast by a few knots. Therefore, gusts up to 30
kt represent the high-end potential on the bay Sunday morning.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued beginning at 4 AM in the
middle and upper bay and at 7 AM for the lower and mouth of the
bay. All headlines are in effect until 4 PM Sunday, though the
northern bay in particular could be cleared a few hours early,
depending on observational trends tomorrow. Waves in the bay
increase to 2-3 ft during this time, locally up to 4 ft in the
southern bay. Elsewhere on the ocean, seas remain in the 2-4 ft
range.
Later Sunday night into early Monday, much drier and cooler air
is expected to advect over the waters helping create a more
prolonged period with strong N/NE winds, initially across the
lower Bay/lower James, the ocean S of Parramore, and the
Currituck Sound. By Monday night into Tuesday, the sfc high is
forecast to build east to New England (at 1030mb+), while a
trough of low pressure is expected to deepen off the SE coast,
actually retrograding a bit to the NW. All of this will act to
tighten the pressure gradient and set the stage for a period of
increasingly adverse marine conditions through the midweek
period. SCAs are likely for the entire marine area, with strong
SCAs for the southern portions of the bay and ocean. Given these
setups tend to overperform the models, cannot rule out of
period of Gale-force winds Tuesday in the coastal waters and
lower bay. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft by Tuesday, and
this could be underdone based on climatology (i.e., 9-10 ft seas
are not out of the realm of possibility offshore in the
southern waters). Would not be surprised if a High Surf Advisory
needs to be issued for VA Beach and the northern NC Outer Banks
by late Monday- Tuesday. A slow improvement is expected
Wednesday, but SCAs are very likely to continue into Wednesday
night for the coastal waters.
The rip current threat is low today, but becomes moderate south
Sunday, and high south, moderate north by Monday. A high risk
is expected areawide Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
No tidal flooding is expected through the weekend, but water
levels will increase Monday, with at least minor flooding
looking probable by Tuesday- Wednesday next week given a
prolonged period of onshore flow and high seas offshore. This
pattern would primarily favor the lower Bay/lower James/York
River, and SE VA/NE NC zones along the Ocean, with less of a
flood threat farther north up the Bay and Ocean.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-
     634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion