Lincoln City, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

612
FXUS66 KPQR 201044
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
344 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Onshore flow will persist into the weekend with seasonable
conditions holding through today. A stronger trough digging
southeast from the Gulf of alaska will send a cold front across
the region late today into Sunday, bringing the best chance in
some time for measurable rain. The front should be east of the
area by late Saturday afternoon, with drier and warmer weather
returning early next week. There is a brief warmup into the 80s
for inland locations on Tuesday, but confidence decreases
midweek as ensemble guidance splits between dry and unsettled
scenarios.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Now through Thursday...As of 4 AM, stratus remains
confined to the immediate coast and coastal gaps, with little
inland penetration so far. Some additional push remains possible
before sunrise, but most inland areas should stay clear. High
pressure will keep conditions calm through today, with highs
reaching the low 80s inland and 60s along the coast. North to
northwest onshore flow continues today, veering westerly and
eventually southwest later in the afternoon as the approaching
front nears. Increasing mid and high clouds will spread inland
during the evening hours ahead of the system.
A stronger shortwave trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska
will drive a cold front through the region tonight into Sunday.
Current timing brings the front to the coast around midnight,
pushing into the Willamette Valley by roughly 5 AM. Confidence
in precise timing remains modest, but most guidance favors the
system exiting east of the area by around 5 PM Sunday.
Rainfall totals are expected to the highest along the coast,
where 0.50 to 0.75 inches appear likely, with maximum values
north of Tillamook. Inland amounts should range from 0.10 to
0.40 inches, with highest totals northeast of Aurora and into
the eastern parts of the Portland/Vancouver metro. Clusters
indicate a 30 to 60% chance of wetting rain (CWR) across the
area Sunday, rapidly decreasing by the evening. Instability is
limited, but there remains a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms,
mainly near the coast or coastal mountains during frontal
passage.
Sunday will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 60s at the
coast and low 70s inland. After frontal passage, conditions dry
out quickly with a return to more seasonable weather early next
week. Inland highs will rebound to the upper 70s by Monday, with
about a 40-60% chance of reaching 85 degrees on Tuesday.
Forecast confidence degrades midweek. Cluster analysis shows
only 20% of members supporting measurable precipitation by
Wednesday, while Friday carries a roughly 50/50 split between
wet and dry outcomes. Tuesday will also need monitoring for
possible fire weather concerns. While most recent guidance has
trended away from a dry and windy pattern, a minority of
solutions still show humidity values near 25% with sustained
winds around 15 kt along the Cascades and foothills. Overall
confidence in this setup is low, but it remains worth watching.
~Hall
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure aloft will maintain predominately VFR
conditions for inland terminals, and extended periods of IFR to
LIFR conditions along the coast. Marine stratus and fog will
likely continue to impact coastal terminals through at least this
morning. A Pacific front will approach the area later tonight,
with light rain spreading to the north Oregon coast after 06z
Sunday.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under mostly clear skies today. Then,
increasing mid-level clouds tonight ahead of an approaching front.
There is less than a 10% chance for low stratus briefly impacting
the terminal between 14-17z this morning. Light west to northwest
winds continue today. /DH
&&
.MARINE...Areas of dense fog continue across the inner waters in
the region of upwelling and appears likely to persist into this
morning.
Seas are currently 5 to 7 ft at 9-10 seconds and should continue
to remain at that level through this evening. A frontal system
arrives tonight from the northwest with winds turning southerly
across the coastal waters beginning this afternoon. There is a
75-85% chance that winds increase into Small Craft Advisory
thresholds with gusts of 25 kt Saturday night across at least the
coastal waters north of Cape Lookout. The strongest winds appear
most likely to occur within 10 NM of the north Oregon and south
Washington coast as a weak coastal jet develops. There is an 80%
chance that seas climb into the 8-10 ft range by the end of
Sunday night as a fresh westerly swell moves into the water.
High pressure then returns to the northeast Pacific. This will
result in northerly winds returning to the waters late Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210-
     251>253.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ251-271.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/portland
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
x.com/NWSPortland

NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion