Lincoln, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS63 KAPX 150635
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer has returned to the Northwoods... unseasonably warm
  with highs in the 80s for most of northern lower through much
  of the week.
- Festering fire weather concerns with drying vegetation and
  warm temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:
Pretty tame pattern across the Northwoods, and the Great Lakes as a
whole for that matter, for the short term period. Upper pattern
showcases a pretty stout Rex Blocking regime materializing, with a
cutoff upper low pressure (trough) across the southeastern CONUS, and
a closed ridge folding over the Great Lakes. Attendant surface high
over northern Ontario / Quebec will continue to pin the area under a
stout subsidence inversion, and thus leading to a lack of sensible
weather for the most part... a trend that these types of patterns
can prolong as features are slow to moderate or depart.
That being said, this previous evening`s advection of the Lake Huron
breeze inland, coupled with a thin plume of deeper moisture across
northeast lower, has led to the materialization of some dense fog
across portions of northeast lower, with APN occasionally
cratering to 1/4mi visibility. Otherwise, most locales holding
on to perhaps a few mid level clouds, with much more sparse fog
located in the lower spots and open areas across the rest of the
CWA.
Forecast Details:
Welp, not a whole lot to dive into through the day today... but will
have to watch how the fog coverage over northeast lower behaves
today. Guidance wants to be quick to scour the fog out through the
morning, which would make sense given diurnal heating and mixing
tendencies. Caveat is that winds will shift more easterly, which may
draw in more of a marine airmass to some of the Lake Huron shore
areas. So anticipating a day that probably turns sunnier through the
morning on the shore... with highs peaking just above 70 on the
shore... and trending markedly warmer the farther inland one goes
(75-80 in eastern upper, low 80s for the rest of northern lower...
possibly pushing 85 toward Cadillac and Wellston). Anticipating the
Lake Michigan breeze to make its presence known due to excellent
differential heating processes and maximized convergence with net
easterly synoptic flow. Lack of moisture with this airmass will lead
to somewhat lower RHs today (perhaps sub 40 percent across the SW
part of the CWA). Couple this with vegetation beginning to feel the
effects of recent dry weather, and some fire weather concerns begin
to enter the picture again... but fortunately, weak flow should keep
somewhat of a lid on the fire growth potential. Much of the same
tonight as surface high pressure lingers to our east. Most likely
area for fog favors NE lower (locally dense) with just patchy
coverage elsewhere. Otherwise, a quiet and mild late summer night
across northern Michigan. Lows 49-55 east of US 131 and across
interior eastern upper... with milder temps tonight courtesy of
those still warm lakes along the Lake Michigan shore (55-60).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
If you like stagnant weather patterns, then this is the right
place to be this week! Aforementioned Rex Block will be firmly
established through the long term forecast period. What does
that mean for us? The influences of that surface high in Ontario
/ Quebec will prevail through at least midweek across the
board, with quite the warmer spell as well... highs in the 80s
(perhaps even upper 80s west of I-75 / US 127 in northern
lower) to prevail with continued easterly flow. With this warmth
and continued drier airmass prevalence... expect fire weather
concerns to fester throughout the forecast period, especially to
start this week.
Troughing across the Plains will remain largely stagnant, leading to
most convection and precipitation being suppressed west / south of
the area... but later in the week, some guidance members are
eventually getting this moisture to crest the ridging and begin
intruding into the region. Result will probably be an increase in
humidity at the minimum as this moisture pools overhead... the issue
is that this airmass is going to be so dry and warm aloft to begin
with that rain may be difficult to come by, especially considering
an overall lack of larger disturbances. Nonetheless, guidance still
tries to force off some showers later in the week as a moisture
starved front tries its hand at passing through the region.
Considering the influences of another incoming high pressure, my
guess is that if anything, 90% of the area holds dry, but we do
trend cooler and less humid with time heading into the upcoming
weekend. More details to come.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Plenty of fog at APN, less so PLN, none elsewhere yet. Have vsby
restrictions at times all but TVC. Then VFR Monday after 13Z,
with onshore lake breezes in the afternoon, and a touch of
cumulus. Patchy fog possible again late tonight.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion