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Lisbon, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

986
FXUS63 KMKX 170934
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 434 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible this morning for low-lying river valleys and along the Kettle Moraine.

- Above normal temps for inland areas Wednesday with highs in the 80s.

- Rain chances trend continues to be later, but there remains a 20 percent chances west of Madison on Thursday and higher chances into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... Issued 423 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Today through Thursday:

Another day of quiet and dry conditions beneath high pressure today with highs in the low to upper 80s.

Similar conditions may occur Thursday with slightly lower temperatures owing to cloud cover. The high may also break down just enough to add a stray shower/storm west of Madison during the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM... Issued 423 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

The upper level ridge will slowly begin to break down and move eastward heading into the later half of the work week. The cut off low in the central plains will be right on the heels of the ridge. A secondary low in the Hudson Bay will also be pulling northeast during this time. With all of these moving parts, there will be more broad lift moving into the state and a couple frontal boundaries expected to move through into the weekend. The first of these boundaries is expected to move through Thursday night into Friday as a cold front that is associated with the retreating low from the Hudson Bay. As this front moves southward the low in the central plains will move northeast into the Great Lakes Region and the frontal boundary will interact with it. With the cooler air winning out ahead of the incoming low from the plains, there wont be much in the way of rainfall from the cold front. This is largely because of the upper level subsidence winning out (ridge) and some drier air moving in. Now this cold front will linger across the southern portions of the state as we head into the weekend.

The ridge will continue to breakdown and move eastward by the weekend which will increase lift and POPs. As the cut off moves in there will also be multiple shortwave troughs moving through the flow. This will likely bring multiple rounds of precipitation. The lingering cold front will also waffle a bit before moving north back across the state as a warm front Saturday and Sunday. The increased lift from the cutoff low and shortwaves and the instability returning behind the front will give Wisconsin the potential for a few thunderstorms. The best push for rain will likely be along the frontal boundary but then subsequent rain will be likely along each shortwave. Exact timing of each round is still uncertain. Not anticipating any stronger to severe storms nor any widespread all day rain. Looking further into early next week, both the GFS and Euro are leaning toward a more active pattern while the CAN tries to keep additional troughs to our north and east.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION... Issued 430 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

After patchy morning fog, VFR and light south to southeast winds persist.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE... Issued 427 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

High pressure in eastern Quebec will continue east today as low pressure slowly lifts northeast into the Hudson Bay. Warm temperatures and light winds will persist through today and bring a potential for fog tonight.

Winds are then expected to increase a bit and shift more easterly Thursday and beyond as another area of low pressure around 29.9 inches develops across the Central Plains. As the low lifts into the Great Lakes Region this weekend, stronger winds up to around 25 kt will be possible.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. &&

$$

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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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