Little Hocking, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS61 KRLX 231651
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1251 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continue through the
work week as multiple disturbances affect the area. Conditions
look to dry out some to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...
Most shower activity is now in the northeastern quadrant of the
CWA, slowly continuing off to the north and east. Elsewhere,
mostly overcast skies are noted, with some patchy breaks in the
clouds, and overall more clouds than sun are expected over the
CWA the rest of today. Shower activity will remain possible, but
generally be subdued this afternoon and into the overnight
hours. We collaborated with some neighbors to put in patchy fog
across much of the area tonight. There is ample low-level
moisture with the recent rains, but we could see it become more
low stratus instead.
Heading into Wednesday, WPC does still have us under Slight risk
(level 2 of 4) for the excessive rainfall outlook, though
models still remain somewhat in flux on the timing and amount of
rainfall we can expect. One thing that does seem a bit
consistent across the near-term hi-res guidance is a signal of
one slug of moisture that moves across the CWA in the morning.
This is associated with the warm front pushing NE across the
area as the surface low tracks over Ohio. Afternoon and evening
showers are still expected across the area, but coverage and
thunderstorm potential are more of a question mark as the
morning activity may put a damper on further convection.
However, if we can get some recovery in instability for the PM
hours, SPC does have us under a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather, with damaging winds possible in any stronger
thunderstorm cells.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
An upper level low to our northwest will continue to push
moisture and a frontal boundary into the area for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will once again lead to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The front could act as a focusing mechanism
for precipitation and with some areas already receiving
rainfall and more expected today, there is some concern for
flash flooding.
Models vary on where the cold front will stall Wednesday night
into Thursday, but our region seems to be a prime target.
The upper level low to our northwest will eventually evolve
into a deep trough and start pushing eastward. This will push
the cold front further eastward and east of our area Thursday
or Thursday night.
The upper trough will push through the area on Friday, allowing
for some showers behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region,
it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States.
Models vary on how far south of us the low is, with the Canadian
being furtherest north and possibly affecting southern portions
of our region. Some other models also leave some moisture over
our mountains, which could lead to some showers. This leads to a
lower confidence in the forecast for the weekend, especially
for the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected today with a
lull this evening going into Wednesday morning. Some brief
restrictions to VIS under heavier shower activity is expected
but should rebound quickly. CIGs may drop to MVFR during the
late morning and through the afternoon, however will lift and
scatter out slightly for the late afternoon and into the
evening. MVFR CIGs will come back to the area early Wednesday
morning.
Southwesterly flow will dominate and we could see gusty
conditons during the afternoon at all sites, but nothing higher
than 20kts, unless any site takes a direct hit from a storm.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of restrictions from rain
may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion