Little Jarvis Lake Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

579
FXUS65 KBOI 150903
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
303 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The closed low is
moving east northeast this morning across western Nevada, with
the low center currently near Reno. This system has brought
another round of showers into south central Idaho, which will
spread north northwest today. Current high res models continue
to show this as a less organized band of showers compared to
yesterday`s more uniform activity. However, heavy embedded
showers will be possible as dynamics increase over the course of
the day, leading to moderate precipitation totals of 0.25 to
0.50 inch, with slightly higher totals possible in the
mountains. The heavier precipitation will likely develop between
Twin Falls and Boise later this morning and remain south of a
Rome-Boise-Stanley line. The Boise area remains on the northern
edge of the heaviest precipitation, with only a 40 percent
chance of seeing greater than a tenth of an inch of rain.
Precipitation will become more showery in the afternoon and
focused in the Magic Valley and central Idaho mountains, with a
10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms also developing. Snow
levels will remain high through the event, generally 6500 to
8000 feet MSL, limiting accumulating snow to the highest peaks.
It will remain cool and breezy as the low moves through.
Precipitation will end from west to east tonight. The cool air
mass in place will allow low temperatures to dip into the 30s in
the lower valleys, resulting in potential for frost and fog.
However, steady northwest winds overnight will limit this
potential except in more sheltered areas. Ensembles show about a
25 percent chance of min temperatures below 37 degrees across
the Boise Metro Thursday morning.
Cool and dry northwest flow on Thursday and Friday will bring
mostly sunny skies, breezy afternoon winds (locally gusts to
around 30 mph southeast of Boise), and slightly below normal
temperatures.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Saturday will
continue to see broad ridging over the area, with daytime
temperatures more on the warmer side from the lower to mid 60s
for most locations. These temperatures are mostly expected for
Sunday. There is still slight guidance disagreement on the
arrival of a digging trough through Sunday, but Sunday will
generally see a 40-60% chance of precipitation across the area.
This system will bring a cooling trend, dropping peak
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s and snow levels into the
4000-5000 ft range from late Sunday to Wednesday. Snowfall and
mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out for the higher
elevations Sunday through early morning Monday. Monday and
Tuesday will see weak ridging and drier conditions. There is
considerable guidance uncertainty over another trough system
moving into the area on Wednesday; ECMWF has it becoming a
stalled upper low off California while the GFS has it as a
longwave trough slowly digging across the region. For now, a
slight chance of precipitation is expected for the highest
elevations in the West-Central ID mountains on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR this evening, with a band of light-
moderate showers and OVC cloud coverage moving NW across the SW
ID valleys. IFR-VLIFR in patchy valley fog this morning.
Widespread precipitation across SW ID Wednesday late morning
through afternoon. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible in
rain showers and low ceilings. Snow levels lowering to 6-7.5 kft
MSL by mid morning. Surface winds: mostly variable 5-10kt.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
variable 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR overnight. MVFR likely/IFR possible from early
morning to early afternoon due to rain showers and low ceilings.
60% chance of rain at the airport, maximized between 12z-18z.
Surface winds: light and variable overnight, becoming W-SW 3-6
kt after 10Z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion