266 FXUS63 KILX 161712 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry weather persists through potentially Friday, with daytime highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- A slow-moving upper system will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances (20-40%) late this week through the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The highs yesterday overperformed once again, likely thanks to the clear skies and dry air. Highs continue to be in the 90s until late in the week, dropping into the 60s overnight. We may get a brief break in the summertime warmth soon. A slow moving upper low travels across the region this weekend, breaking down the upper ridging that has been in place for the last week. Highs will become more seasonable for the weekend, dropping down into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The next 3 days will remain dry. The models have continued the slower progression of the system later this week. POPs increase by Friday to a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Daily chances for rain exist into the beginning of next week. No relief for the drought is expected anytime soon. The probabilistic NBM is showing a 20-40% chance of an inch during the Friday 12z to Monday 12z, 72 hour period.
The global models are hinting at more ridging setting up behind this weekend`s more progressive system. Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperature to return potentially. The CPC continues to hold on to the above normal temperature outlook through the next 3-4 weeks. Normal highs for mid to late September are around the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the low to mid 50s.
Copple
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.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions continue through the period with light east-northeast winds and a few passing high clouds.
NMA
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion