Llano, California Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS66 KLOX 281031
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
331 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...28/143 AM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through next week, but
temperatures should rise a little starting Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the mountains and deserts this
afternoon. Small chance of light rain around the Central Coast
late Monday into Tuesday. Areas of drizzle possible each morning
through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/249 AM.
A couple of stray showers are moving through the regional
deserts, pushed along by the northeast steering flow. That flow
should shut off by sunrise. Precipitable water readings (pwats)
will hold steady at around 1.5 inches through the middle of the
day, then start their steady lowering trend through Tuesday.
Instability remains rather good this afternoon over the mountains,
with Lifted Indices around -3, K-Indicies around 40, and MUCAPES
around 2000. All we need is a kicker to initiate convection. None
of the usual suspects exist (upper level disturbances or
divergence), but with everything else in play, one more round of
mountain showers and thunderstorms are on the table this
afternoon. The vast majority of the models are highlighting the
typical hot spots (northern Ventura County Mountains and the San
Gabriel Mountains). 60-80% of the HREF ensemble members have
precipitation in those areas, while the NBM stays below 10%. Going
to lean into the HREF and up PoPs into the chance category for
those hot spots. With pwats decreasing through the day however,
the risk of dangerous flash flooding (warning-level) is rather
low, but would expect some localized more nuisance minor flooding
of roads and canyons under any of the heavier showers.
A low pressure system currently just west of the Aleutian Islands
has spawned two frontal bands that will march down the West Coast.
All projections have these bands fizzling out by the time they
reach Point Conception Monday or Tuesday, but 10-30% of the
ensembles produce some light rain on the Central Coast. Added some
slight chance wording back to the forecast as a result. Any
amounts will be very light with minor impacts.
The marine layer and inland low cloud intrusion remain deep and
expansive through Tuesday. Expect random patches of drizzle
wetting roads anywhere, with some hilly areas seeing
accumulations. With the fronts approaching, the Central Coast
might see enhanced drizzle Monday or Tuesday.
All of this adds up to temperatures staying well below normal. No
major wind concerns through at least Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/331 AM.
Dry conditions are likely Wednesday through the following weekend,
with any chances of rain very minimal at this point. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees as high pressure from Mexico noses
northward, but temperatures will remain below normal. Some
moderate Sundowners will form each night. The combination of those
winds and the ridge just to the east should shrink the marine
layer and force it to return to more normal operations.
&&
.AVIATION...28/0710Z.
At 0618Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 5000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.
Overall, low to moderate confidence in TAF package. Timing of
flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and flight cats may
be off by one cat at times through the period. Due to high clouds
cigs may scatter and reform frequently.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
may be off by +/- 2 hours, and flight cats may be off by one cat
at times through the period. There is a 30% chance for an east
wind component reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 18Z Sunday.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
may be off 2 hours. There is a 30% chance of BKN006-BKN009
conditions from 08Z to 16Z Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...28/259 AM.
Winds and seas are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels for all coastal waters through Wednesday, except for
a 30 percent chance of SCA winds Tuesday and Wednesday night near
Point Conception and San Miguel Island. Thursday onward, chances
for winds & seas to reach SCA levels increases significantly, with
periods of SCA winds favored across the outer waters.
Through this Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 6 feet will
impact the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south
facing harbors. Across all the coastal waters, seas are expected
to remain below SCA levels through at least Tuesday, with SCA seas
becoming possible Wednesday onwards for the outers waters.
&&
.BEACHES...28/202 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters today and last into Wednesday, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for
the Central Coasts. Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-
facing beaches may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry
beach areas.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for all exposed south-
facing beaches for today through Wednesday. Surf of 4 to 7 feet
is expected, with local max sets up to 8 feet for the Central
Coast.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Sirard/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion