Locust Valley Post Office New York Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS61 KOKX 150613
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass today, with high pressure then in
control through the weekend. Another cold front will move
through Sunday night into Monday, with weak high pressure
returning on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cold front will pass thru the area this aftn. Before it does
so, some early mrng dz possible mainly ern portions of the cwa.
Subsidence and dry air aloft should help to create at least
some partial clearing this mrng, but mid and high clouds
associated with the frontal sys will infiltrate the area at the
same time. The fropa is expected to be dry with no moisture
source outside of the Great Lakes. Light NW/VRB flow increase
out of the NW behind the front. Temps in the 60s and the NBM
was followed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW flow tngt with temps dropping into the 30s and 40s. Temps and
wind not conducive to any widespread frost attm.
Breezy and cool on Thu with high temps remaining in the 50s most
areas. NW winds will continue. Skies should be relatively cloud
free with subsidence and a dry airmass.
Cool again Thu ngt, but the winds are progged to keep most areas
from bottoming out. Some of the more sheltered areas and/or
valleys could decouple and allow temps to drop blw the current
NBM guidance which was used for this fcst. In that case, some
patchy frost would be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The fcst thinking remains on track and the NBM was followed.
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend. It
  will remain somewhat breezy on Fri due to the pressure
  gradient between high pressure building from west and
  strengthening low pressure meandering out over the open
  Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs
  only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temps Fri night could fall
  to 35-40 inland and into 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to
  the north and vertically stacked high pressure builds over
  and east of the area. Temperatures should reach 65-70 on Sat
  and 70-75 on Sunday.
* A cold front and associated closed low aloft will bring
  showers mainly Sunday night into Monday. High temps Mon/Tue
  will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic drifts farther east as high
pressure remains to the northwest. A cold front passes through this
afternoon.
MVFR ceilings are remaining fairly persistent early this morning. An
eventual improvement to VFR is expected at some point prior to
sunrise. Once ceilings improve to VFR, conditions are expected to
remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will remain northerly through the forecast. Winds increase
late this morning or early afternoon and become gusty, generally to
18-23kt, backing a little toward NNW during the afternoon. Gusts may
persist into the first part of this evening, especially for eastern
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of VFR overnight may be off an hour or two. Amendments
possible overnight for timing of VFR.
An occasional gust higher than forecast will be possible.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Tonight into Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. Late day showers possible Sunday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean thru tngt. The advy will
likely need to be extended each day, with SCA cond possible thru
Fri. Elsewhere, NW winds will pick up again late today and tngt
behind a fropa. The NW winds then continue thru Fri. A SCA may
be needed starting tngt thru Fri as a result.
All waters may drop blw SCA lvls on Sat, the winds and waves
increase again Sun due to another frontal sys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Offshore flow and less tidal piling then mitigate most flooding
threats for at least the next few days.
With N flow relaxing on Fri, a couple of the more vulnerable
spots along the Fairfield CT coastline and along the back bays
of S Nassau/SW Suffolk south may get close to minor thresholds,
but confidence in this is low. With S flow and seas increasing
on Sunday ahead of a cold front, there is medium confidence
that tidal piling and elevated astronomical tides associated
with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some spotty minor
coastal flooding in these same areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion