Long Lake Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

412
FXUS64 KJAN 140855
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend
   and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather.
- Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will
   continue to be the general rule.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The primary concern for this forecast will be with the increased
thunderstorm threat this weekend, but before then, it will be more
of the same through the work week with an unusually strong
subtropical ridge remaining fixed over the Southern Plains to
Lower MS Valley region. This will continue a long stretch of
above normal temperatures and dry conditions, and it`s not out of
the question for a few locations to reach 90 F, especially as we
go into late week.
Going into the weekend, global models are trying to come into
agreement on a significant shortwave trough that is forecast to
cross the central CONUS. The ECMWF/ECENS suite has been leading
the way so far with showing more aggressive wave amplification and
lower heights in the southern stream, and the GFS/GEFS and GEM
suites are trending in that direction. Either of these solutions
would provide sufficient lift/moisture/instability for storms to
develop and organize ahead of a cold front in the last Sat/Sat
night time frame, but the ECMWF suggests a scenario that is more
supportive of severe storms given stronger low level wind fields
and deep layer shear and the potential for great instability. NCAR
machine learning guidance based on solutions from the ECMWF suite
has been showing an upward trend for severe weather probabilities
over northwest portions of our area, and will continue to
highlight the potential for storms in our messaging per latest SPC
guidance.
The cold front will push through the area by early Sunday, and it
will be followed by seasonably mild and dry air as we go through
early next week. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
NE wind gusts to around 20 kts will be possible at times across all
TAF sites later this afternoon. Otherwise, quiet conditions will
persist through the entire TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing.
/CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      86  52  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     87  54  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   87  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       85  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    85  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     86  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/CR/

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion