Longboat Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS62 KTBW 290025
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Recent KTBW radar imagery shows a band of showers with a few
embedded storms drifting offshore at this time with additional
scattered activity moving into the Atlantic coast as well. This
activity coming ashore on the Atlantic coast will generally
weaken as it moves further inland so not expecting too much
precipitation activity across the TBW CWA overnight but some
isolated shower activity may push westward enough to reach the
forecast area at times as low level flow backs to a more northerly
direction by tomorrow morning with Tropical Storm Imelda reaching
the northern Bahamas by this time. Other than some minor tweaks
to PoPs this evening to reflect recent hi-res guidance, the
ongoing forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The front that moved through the area yesterday has shifted eastward
off the east coast of Florida. High pressure builds in from the
north behind this front and has brought a shift in the winds to a
more north-northeast direction. The 12Z morning sounding is also
showing some drier air with a PWAT of 1.75 inches as well as the
water vapor imagery showing a dry notch over west central and
southwest Florida. This may limit, but not completely eliminate, the
rain chances for this afternoon. Latest HRRR guidance does show
some late afternoon showers and storms developing over the interior
and traversing southwestward toward the west coast of Florida.
Now on to the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories for Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Depression Nine.
Humberto is located east of the Bahamas and is expected to remain a
major hurricane through the weekend and into next week as it tracks
northwestward. The latest advisory tracks the storm between Bermuda
and the east coast of the U.S. early next week, and does not pose a
threat to west central and southwest Florida. Tropical Depression
Nine is located between Cuba and the Bahamas and is expected to
intensify to a Tropical Storm later today or early tomorrow and will
track to the north-northwest over the Bahamas and then turning
eastward on Tuesday and staying out to sea between the U.S.
coastline and Bermuda. This storm does not pose any direct impacts
for west central and southwest Florida.
Drier air on the west side of Tropical Depression Nine and high
pressure building in from the north will settle into west central
and southwest Florida producing pleasant weather for the first half
of next week with lower rain chances. Moisture increases by Thursday
with slightly higher rain chances expected for the latter part of
the week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period,
with mid to upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each afternoon.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60`s and 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are in place this evening but ceilings are
expected to lower overnight into Monday morning, which may result
in MVFR CIGs at some terminals. The low clouds will gradually
lift by late Monday morning with mostly VFR conditions then
prevailing through the remainder of the day, though brief
restrictions will be possible late afternoon and evening as
scattered thunderstorms could develop but forecast confidence is
too low to include in TAFs at this time. Surface winds will be out
of the NE at 5-8 kts overnight and shift to more NNW on Monday
with wind speeds increasing to around 10-15 kts and gusts of 20
kts or more at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
High pressure will build back over the waters today and into early
next week with lower rain chances each day. Northerly winds around
10 to 15 knots and seas up to 3 feet expected today and Monday. The
gradient further tightens between Tropical Depression Nine east of
Florida and high pressure to the north for Tuesday through Thursday
with cautionary winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
No fire weather concerns expected through the weekend and into next
week as relative humidity values remain above critical levels and
winds remain below 15 mph. Scattered showers and isolated storms
possible each day through the weekend, then lower rain chances
expected for the first half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  76  89 /  10  30  10  20
FMY  75  91  75  89 /  10  20  10  20
GIF  75  90  74  89 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  74  90  75  88 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  71  89  71  88 /  10  40   0  20
SPG  76  89  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion