Lore City, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS61 KPBZ 072233
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high
pressure dominates. Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal
today will see a gradual warming trend over the upcoming work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Below-normal temperatures expected tonight and Monday
---------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight starts another extended run of dry weather for the
region under high pressure. Cumulus clouds will dissolve after
sunset, leading to mostly clear conditions overnight. Some steam
fog will be possible over the warmer rivers. Using NBM 50th
percentile values as opposed to the mean to nudge them down as
good radiational cooling conditions are expected. Would not be
surprised to hear about isolated pockets of frost in the colder
valleys northeast of Pittsburgh, but coverage should not be
enough for headline consideration.
Monday should feature fewer daytime cumulus than today, with the
best concentration north of Pittsburgh with a bit better
moisture aloft. With warming 850mb temperatures as the high
pressure center edges eastward and as heights aloft start to
rise, afternoon highs will be a couple degrees warmer than
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with warming temperatures each day.
- Chances of morning valley fog.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Clustered ensemble guidance continues to show building heights
through mid-week as an east coast trough continues to slacken in
amplitude, ushering in a gradual pattern of height rises through
Thursday. This will lead to a progressive warming trend, with
forecast temperatures slightly below normal Tuesday then near
normal Wednesday. Surface high pressure will dominate, keeping
skies mostly clear with chances of afternoon fair weather
cumulus save cirrus blow-off from a southeast coastal low
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
With mostly clear periods overnight, lows are expected to be
around 10 degrees below average; perhaps cooler in valley
drainages. Additionally, patchy river valley fog will be
possible each morning, though the coverage Wednesday morning
will depend on the thickness of upper clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming temperatures and dry conditions continue late-week.
- Temperature and precipitation uncertainty increases next weekend.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The dry patter is likely to continue for the long term, with no
potent weather systems on the foreseeable horizon. Ridging
continues through Thursday with high temperatures a bit warmer
yet again. There is some ensemble indication of upper shortwave
troughing into the northeast late- week, with only around 15%
of membership showing continued ridging. Even with veering flow
aloft, surface high pressure is still expected to prevail; so
the only real representation of flow changes may be high clouds
and a brief pause (or even small interruption) of the warming
trend. All in all, temperatures are most likely to stay near-to
slightly above average Friday.
Into next weekend, temperature and precipitation trends become
divergent and ensemble spread increases as clusters struggle to agree
on what scenario prevails: 1) continued ridging, warming
temperatures, and no precipitation (27% of LREF membership); 2)
stronger new England troughing with northwest flow and continued
warming to the northwest periphery of an upper ridge (52% of
LREF membership); and 3) Great Lakes upper troughing that would
being cooler conditions and higher rain chances (21% of LREF
membership). Depending on which scenario plays out, temperature
next weekend through early next week could be anywhere from 5
degrees below normal (scenario 3), to 5-10 degrees above normal
(scenario 2). Substantial precipitation chances will largely
rely on scenario 3.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Ongoing cold
advection over the warm waters of Lake Erie, along with a
passing shortwave trough, will continue to generate a few
scattered lake-enhanced showers this afternoon, with FKL and
DUJ most likely to see this precipitation. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will aid efficient mixing, allowing for some 15-25
knots wind gusts this afternoon.
Any cumulus/showers will collapse with sunset, leading to a VFR
evening. With high pressure overhead, a mostly clear and calm
overnight is foreseen. Fog should be more valley-based Monday
morning, mainly as steam over the warm rivers, with minimal
impact expected at terminals. A lesser cumulus field is forecast
by midday Monday with a decrease in moisture, and wind overall
will be light out of the east and northeast.
.OUTLOOK....
High confidence in high pressure supporting VFR and light wind
as the predominate weather type through at least mid week.
Variances in these conditions will only be the result of
localized morning river valley fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/CL
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...CL

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion