Lourdes Lake Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

855
FXUS64 KOHX 092201
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 454 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
- No hazardous weather expected over the next week with dry
  conditions prevailing.
- Cooler temperatures in the 70s for the remainder of the week,
  returning to the 80s next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
There is no change to the forecast as we head into the late
afternoon. A surface ridge is situated to our immediate northwest
with an inverted surface trough and upper low just to the
southeast. So we are left with a relatively strong surface
pressure gradient across Middle Tennessee, hence the gusty
daytime winds. Needless to say, we are blessed with a dry
atmosphere. Precipitable Water value from the 12Z sounding at OHX
was 0.41", giving us a PWAT+ value of 44 (meaning that the
observed PWAT is just 44% of the daily mean value). Overnight lows
will likely end up slightly cooler than those observed this
morning, so we certainly have pleasant, autumn-like conditions to
enjoy.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 454 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
If you were hoping for some exciting weather I have bad news for
you, our quiet and dry weather is going to continue through the
forecast period. A strong area of high pressure is set up to our
north over the Great Lakes and that will influence our weather
into the end of the week. There is a vort max currently over
Middle TN and that is pulling some slightly higher PWATs north
into our eastern and southern areas. This will just lead to some
low level clouds into Friday morning. Highs will be in the low to
mid 70s this afternoon which is right at seasonal norms. Not
going to see a lot of change as we head into the Friday. Highs
will tick up a few degrees as we start to see southerly flow. An
upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes will also bring
some mid to high level clouds in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 454 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
We will move into weak northwest flow aloft over the weekend as
the upper level trough slowly moves east out of the Great Lakes.
Our quiet and dry weather will remain in place. Highs will be a
bit warmer in the mid 70s to lower 80s. As we head into next week
an upper level ridge will build in from the west and amplify over
the central part of the country. This will keep our rain chances
at or near zero for the week. Highs will remain in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period with winds becoming light
and variable overnight and remaining that way on Friday. Could see
some patchy fog tonight, but probabilities and locations affected
are uncertain right now, so I refrained from adding into this set
of TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    47  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     47  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       52  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     50  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      47  72  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   52  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   52  76  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        49  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Holley

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion