911 FXUS63 KBIS 252351 AFDBISArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 651 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the weekend.
- Breezy and dry conditions on Friday could lead near critical fire weather conditions over parts of southwest North Dakota.
- Well above normal temperatures continue into next week, with low chances for rain returning by early to the middle of next week.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Quiet weather and no clouds over the area continue. No changes needed at this time.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Surface high pressure continues to move across the southern Saskatchewan bringing forth a cold front that has passed through the state. As a result high temperatures today are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 60s to 70s across the state. Tonight, overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the state.
High temperatures tomorrow will warm ahead of another cold front. Highs are forecast to warm into the upper 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s. A cold front will roll through the area tomorrow afternoon bringing forth breezy conditions across the state. Winds are forecast to sit around 20 mph with minimum relative humidity as low as 20 percent in the southwest, which could lead to a window of near critical fire weather conditions in the southwest. However, this will be all depend on the fuels status, areas like Adams county remain fairly green from recent rain while areas like Slope and Billings Counties continue to dry out and cure. Winds will die down after sunset as mixing reduces. Surface high pressure will pass over the area Saturday morning which could lead to low temperatures in the lower 40s maybe even upper 30s. This could result in possible patchy frost in low lying areas if low temperatures continue to trend downward.
Upper level ridging will continue across the region through the weekend leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday and warming into the 80s by Sunday. High temperatures in the 80s are forecast to persist through the middle of next week. Low temperatures could even approach record high lows by Tuesday of next week with lows in the 60s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms could return by early next week. Warm temperatures and increased dewpoints will lead to increased instability across the region. In addition the ensembles are showing an upper level trough under cutting the upper level ridge resulting in increase precipitation chances sometime early next week. However, the ensembles do differ on the timing of this system.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southerly winds overnight will shift direction to the northwest Friday morning over far western North Dakota, and over the remainder of western and central North Dakota Friday afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
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.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...JJS
NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion