406 FXUS64 KMRX 112338 AFDMRXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 738 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE... Issued at 323 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Some showers have developed in the Cumberland Plateau and near Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee where a robust CU field can be seen on satellite. This activity will last a few hours and dissipate before sunset.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Key Messages:
1. Mostly clear and dry conditions continue through the weekend with high pressure in control.
2. Gradual warming trend into the weekend. This weekend and early next week will have above normal temps.
3. A slight chance for afternoon showers and storms early next week mainly in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains.
Discussion:
Dry weather will continue through at least the weekend as high pressure remains in place. Some fog will be possible in the morning hours mainly near rivers and lakes. Starting Friday, a ridge will build into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This ridge will remain in place through at least the weekend, bringing a warming trend. Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early next week with highs in the upper 80s for most of the Tennessee Valley by Monday and Tuesday.
By early next week, a trough will form and linger over the Mid- Atlantic. There will be a slight chance for afternoon showers and storms early next week mainly in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. Overall, rain chances will remain low.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The few showers and storms that have developed across the region will continue to dissipate over the next few hours. Predominant VFR conditions and light winds are expected through tomorrow afternoon. Some brief fog possible at TRI between 6-12Z based on previous days observations but have kept conditions VFR with just vicinity fog mentioned at this time.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
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.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
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DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...KRS
NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion