Lutts, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

974
FXUS64 KOHX 050537
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Dry and warm conditions continue on Sunday.
- Rain chances increase starting Sunday night through Wednesday.
  Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature the highest rain chances
  of 60-80%. Severe weather is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
High pressure continues its influence on the area into Sunday,
resulting in another nice day to end the weekend. No hazardous
weather is expected with dry conditions continuing and mostly
sunny skies contributing to above normal temperatures as highs
warm into the mid and upper-80s.
But by Sunday night, the center of the upper-level high moves off
to the east which in turns allows for southerly flow to set up
over the southeast US. This southerly flow brings Gulf moisture
up into the area which will start to increase our rain chances as
we start the new work week. Low rain chances start to build
primarily west of I-65 Sunday night, but rain chances increase to
around 30-40% during the day on Monday across the same area with
lower chances towards the east. This surge of Gulf moisture will
allow PWATs to increase to around 1.6-1.75 inches which is above
the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Despite this
abundant moisture source, there is still a lack of strong overall
forcing. And as CAMs start to come into view for this time frame,
they suggest activity will be widely scattered with probabilities
of receiving more than 0.25" low. With that said, there may still
be isolated areas that pick up more than a half inch of rain
thanks to abundant moisture and instability, but this probability
is around 20% for the western counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Moisture advection continues into Tuesday with PWATs ranging from
1.7 to 1.8 inches - still above the 90th percentile. Forcing
increases though on Tuesday and Wednesday as a shortwave and
associated front track through the area. This will allow
precipitation chances to increase to 60-80% Tuesday and Tuesday
night before the front clears the area on Wednesday. With this added
forcing, this time frame will be our best chance for higher rain
amounts. By Wednesday night, the chance for rain totals exceeding
one inch generally range from 40-60% with the higher chances
across the western half of Middle TN.
Drier conditions with just low rain chances return to the area
starting on Thursday. Even better news though is that temperatures
will cool down post-front. High temperatures Thursday and into the
weekend look to generally be in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Advertising VFR conditions through this TAF period. However, will
be watching for any patchy or shallow fog development overnight,
particularly at SRB and CKV. Otherwise, winds prevail SE tomorrow
at 7-12 kts with a few clouds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  67  85  68 /   0  10  10  30
Clarksville    88  65  82  67 /   0  10  40  50
Crossville     78  60  79  61 /   0  10  10  10
Columbia       86  65  84  67 /   0  20  20  30
Cookeville     82  63  81  65 /   0  10  10  20
Jamestown      80  60  80  62 /   0  10  10  20
Lawrenceburg   84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   86  66  85  67 /   0  10  10  20
Waverly        85  64  80  65 /   0  20  40  40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Sizemore

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion